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voted back into parliament while the lazy ones will be voted out of power.
Such a dilemma in power politics makes some resist the proposed election dates for fear that they will never set foot in the corridors of power once they are defeated in the forthcoming elections. It is therefore not surprising that we now hear some groups trying to magnify alleged violence ahead of the general elections. In politics, there are always those who come up with various excuses as to prolong the electoral process hoping that things might in the end turn in their favour.
The pressure the revolutionary Zanu-PF party was put through in 2008 mainly by civic groups and Western countries in calling for elections has exposed the double standards within these groupings in that this time around they are not vocal at all.
There seems to be too much at stake for these groups and extra caution needs to be taken. What is actually coming out from these pseudo-democratic movements has more to do with unsubstantiated fears of election violence.
In 2008, these groups were very outspoken merely because they knew very well that the whole election process was heavily tilted in favour of the MDC party. Shelves in shops were empty, service delivery had gone down, the Zimbabwean dollar was next to useless, fuel was a scarce commodity, hospitals did not have drugs, civil servants could hardly make ends meet because of biting inflation and the masses were hungry, angry and bitter. All these misfortunes had been blamed on Zanu-PF and most urbanites were easily fooled into believing that the MDC would bring credible solutions to the western orchestrated quagmire that the country found itself in.
Despite the cries for ‘free and fair’ elections coming from civic groups as well as their western funders what was well known to them was that the election was actually in favour of their MDC friends. The revolutionary Zanu-PF party in spite of these political and economic setbacks went ahead to contest in the 2008 elections which was actually more of committing electoral suicide. This time around, the MDC seems not to be willing to take the bold move Zanu-PF took in the last election since they very much know that the Zimbabwean political and economic landscape has greatly improved since 2008.
It is a fact that in the 2008 presidential election there was no outright winner as each candidate failed to garner enough votes to reach the 51% mark. Misguided elements within civil society and the MDC-T party claim that Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai won the last election ignoring the simple fact that though he had the highest percentage he still failed to garner enough votes as to secure an outright victory in the 2008 presidential elections.
Tsvangirai in his book ‘At the Deep End’ admits or acknowledges that he did not win the 2008 elections though he had the highest percentage of votes in the first round of the electoral process.
The political party that seems to be facing an uphill task in the forthcoming elections is MDC-T. In the 2008 elections, the popular vote showed that Zanu-PF had the highest number of people who voted for it in the harmonised elections than any other party. This meant that a count of the people who voted for Zanu-PF in all constituencies put together was higher than that of the two MDC formations.
Had it not been the ugly politics of factionalism which dogged the revolutionary party months before the 2008 elections the presidential elections would have been out rightly won by Zanu-PF in the first round. This was regardless of the fact that the country was facing an economic downturn. The 43 percent who voted for President Mugabe in the last election notwithstanding the issue of factionalism, inflation, unemployment, hunger and disease are more likely to do so in 2013. 
These 43 percent are genuine party supporters whose loyalty to the party can never be doubted. If the economic hardships failed to sway their support for President Mugabe then there will be nothing that can likely influence their candidate or political party preference in the 2013 elections.
This group’s loyalty and support to Zanu-PF might be based on performance especially the outputs in response to their inputs. This 43 percent group may also include those who are benefiting from their political party’s policies. Political party supporters and activists are also part of this 43 percent group. This group usually votes in every election in support of their political party.  
The 47 percent who voted for Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai in anticipation of economic salvation are more likely to change their minds come election time. The 47 percent group is a mixture of various groups comprising those who are genuinely loyal to the MDC party, those whose candidates were not nominated during Zanu primary elections, those who were hoping for better salaries in a new MDC government, those protesting against some individuals in Zanu-PF, those who were given hand-outs in the form of money or other resources and finally those who were hoodwinked that the MDC had the keys to kick-start the ailing economy. With such a mixed bag of voters with divergent viewpoints there is no guarantee that they will remain loyal to the MDC-T.
The groups which were looking forward to a better life are more likely to switch sides once they realise that their demands have evaporated in thin air. Those who voted for the MDC-T party in protest or to punish Zanu-PF politicians for imposing candidates on them are also more likely to support their old party once their favourite candidates bounce back in transparent primary elections.
The hand-out group is the most unstable political party support group since their loyalty to politicians only depends on what they get and if the supply base dries up then they will quickly change sides to the party which offers them more benefits. Voters usually weigh the advantages and disadvantages of voting for a certain candidate. This means that they will only turn up to vote when they consider that the advantages of nominating a certain candidate into political office outweigh the disadvantages of making such a choice.
In the 2013 elections it won’t be surprising that 6-7 percent of those who voted for the MDC-T in the last election might fail to cast their vote since they are now hopeless after realising that they have not benefited anything from their party in spite of it being now a part of the inclusive government.
Voters alienated from the political process are less likely to vote. This alienated group of voters feels that their vote will not make any difference, that politics has little influence in their lives and that their political party does not address their concerns. Of the 47 percent who voted for Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai in the last election there is also a very high possibility that some of the voters will be swallowed by small parties such as Zapu, MDC-N, MDC-M while others will re-join Zanu-PF.
The whole 2013 election is centred on the choices which are going to be made by the 47 percent who voted for MDC-T in the last presidential elections. As things stand right now, other parties seem to be recording quite reasonable numbers of MDC-T party supporters joining their parties. The deserters feel disillusioned by their former political party’s economic policies and high degrees of corruption cases which have been reported in most urban councils.
Welshman Ncube and Dumiso Dabengwa’s political parties are in a way going to upset MDC-T especially in the Matebeleland region. Though this might be subject to criticism, Masipula Sithole points out that it is elites who invoke tribal ideology . . . and who precipitate politics or power struggles.
He also puts equal blame on the masses when he asks why they vote along ethnic lines. Is it because they are manipulated by a skilful petty-bourgeois leadership? Are the masses prey to party operatives? Or, indeed, when the masses are voting along ethnic lines, have they not calculated that it is their best interest to do so? I suggest that we are, in fact, witnessing conscious calculations for selfish interests by both the masses and the leadership. 
There is therefore a high possibility if we are to consider Sithole’s research findings based on ethnicity in African politics that MDC-T might lose quite a number of supporters in this region owing to the Shona/Ndebele divide. The issue of tribalism is rife among the Ndebele though most politicians want to sweep it under the carpet or to pretend that it doesn’t exist.
Zanu-PF’s support base in the region is likely to remain intact bearing in mind that part of the 43 percent who voted for President Mugabe in the 2008 elections can also be found in some parts of Matebeleland. There is also a likelihood that Zanu-PF may also make more inroads in Matabeleland bearing in mind that the revolutionary party addresses some sticky issues in that region especially on revival of industries, availability of water, meaningful political positions and inclusion in economic issues.
Primary elections can also lead to divisiveness within MDC-T. Partisan primaries tend to encourage fights within parties, causing damages that cannot be repaired before the general elections. Such conflicts weaken the party structure and may cause needless defeats. MDC-T just like Zanu-PF is to carry out primary elections in months to come. These might lead to another 2-3 percent of the 47 percent punishing the party for imposing unfavourable candidates on the electorate. Zanu-PF is also not immune to this.    
In the forthcoming 2013 elections, MDC-T has every reason to worry. The shops are full, fuel is in abundance, the American dollar has stabilised the economy and people now know the political party responsible for the deadly sanctions. The democratic rhetoric or the ‘yes we can deliver propaganda’ will not find many buyers this time around.
Civil servants have also realised the folly of supporting western controlled parties which act according to scripts written in Northern capitals.
South Africa’s Marikana incident has also exposed the weaknesses of MDC-T’s job creation policy.
People now know that it’s no longer about getting a job but how one as an ordinary worker is also entitled to benefit from the company’s shares and profits. Politics, is indeed, very interesting.

Bowden Mbanje and Darlington Mahuku are lecturers in International Relations and Peace and Governance with Bindura University of Science Education.