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Zimbabwe’s agriculture is moving into a new phase, one where we are ever more likely to have surpluses of basic food, and so as we continue to push productivity and the area planted to each crop we are going to have to think what we can do with the surpluses.

We are already partly there. For the first time since we started farming wheat in 1966 we are likely this harvest to have a surplus, a very small one of around 20 000 tonnes that can easily be held as a carry-over stock to next season, and in any case gives us that small cushion if demand rises by more than expected over the next year.

But it is a sign of the times. Wheat is the ultimate climate-proofed crop since it is grown under irrigation, except for the small fraction of vlei wheat, and so as long as enough rain falls at some stage to fill the dams and recharge the aquifers the farmers do not have to worry about where and when it falls. 

So it is the ultimate grain crop when it comes to testing the other aspects of our agriculture systems: the skill and willingness of the farmers, the financing, the supply of inputs and the machinery and ability to bring in the harvest with minimal losses, plus of course up to 12 months’ storage with zero loss until the next harvest.

So these other farming foundations are sound. They are also used for summer grain, with increasing supplementary irrigation on the larger farms to get through dry-spells plus the understanding, after two seasons, by many small-scale farmers of the importance of climate proofing their high-yield Pfumvudza plots in the recommended manner through water conservation, draining and mulching.

As President Mnangagwa noted this weekend, we still have to get all farmers up to the exceptional productivity of the best, the farmers who reap more than 10 tonnes a hectare. 

But a single small Pfumvudza plot of 16m x 39m would produce 625kg of grain at that level of productivity, with exceptionally good use made of the modest amounts of seed and fertiliser applied. So the target is worthwhile.

The yields from traditional grains are not so remarkable in potential, although still higher than many achieve at present, but the plots with these grains are far more likely to produce a reasonable harvest even if the rain is erratic, or even on the low side. 

This is one of the main reasons why the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development is so careful to encourage multiple plots on each farm and create the sort of pack mix that maximises output: more maize in natural region 2, more traditional grain in natural region 4, but both in all regions. 

But as we climb above self-sufficiency in summer grain, with a some carry over, we need to think of the mixes very carefully. 

Our neighbours usually have similar weather, so when we have surpluses the easy markets next door have surpluses. There are exceptions, and that carryover stock of 300 000 tonnes from last year came in very useful this year, but we must be careful.

One obvious growth must be in oil seeds: soya, sunflower and cotton. Once we are assured of grain it would make sense to push those more, and crude cooking oil is much easier to export than grain as we know from our own imports. 

So this is one area where we could probably safely push beyond self-sufficiency, and even building our own reserves, to have the exports.

But as the President was stressing, as we move from self-sufficiency to exportable surpluses we need to make sure we are growing the sort of crops we can sell easily and this could well include choosing the varieties and tastes that people in other markets want to eat.

As noted, tobacco does this, with a lot of research and market research done to ensure that what our farmers grow is precisely what our tobacco customers can sell and precisely what those who smoke our tobacco want to buy. The rest of farming now needs to spread its wings as the exports start coming through.

Those who are concerned that Zimbabwe should be thinking of more agricultural exports with the rising population and the climate change need to look at the actual figures.

We are already in the sphere of self-sufficiency for grain, and in a short while with the sort of effort we are making oil seeds will join the list. Already we have reached the stage where it is not lack of skill in farming communities so much as lack of water. 

Already skill levels are rising fast, and part of that is driven by Pfumvudza which puts a premium on growing high-yields on moderate area, with a lot of thought put into how to conserve what rainfall does fall. 

This method has now been adapted to cotton and while there is a generous limit on what comes with free inputs, there is no limit on how much more a farming family can add to the basic five plots.

Mechanisation at both the commercial level on the larger farms and on the small-scale farms is now being addressed. 

Already there is some capacity to help the elderly and those living with physical handicaps get their Pfumvudza plots dug, and as time goes on and farm incomes keep running we might well see some of this equipment ending up on farms, owned by farmers. 

One interesting statistic is that with 3 million Pfumvudza farmers this season, even one plot of maize each at the maximum yield comes to more than 1,8 million tonnes. Some are just starting, and others face the climate, but we should start seeing the first Pfumvudza families getting their 625kg off a single plot this season. 

And of course families are adding to their plots, often each year. It has been reported that several families have discovered the plots can be reused with only moderate extra work so long as the right mulches and the like are available and this allows them to add extra plots. 

Since we are now talking about several types of crop, it is obviously easy to rotate crops through the plots each year.

So we are building up to the sort of levels where careful thought on what can be sold easily, what can be sold with difficulty and what might not be competitive on a regional or global market needs to be thought out. Success means we have to keep moving forward, but in the right direction.