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The International Air Transport Association (IATA) says the global passenger market has made a robust start to 2016, growing in line with its 10-year average, although there are on-going signs that passenger growth is shifting down a gear.

IATA represents some 260 airlines accounting for 83 percent of global air traffic. In the global traffic update for May this year, the association said the 6 percent year-on-year increase in industry wide revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) in the first five months of 2016 had been “flattered by the leap year.”

“But even after correcting for the extra day in February, we estimate that traffic still grew by 5,3 percent this year to date, in line with the average pace seen over the past decade. Nonetheless, following a bumper year in 2015, there are on-going signs that passenger growth has shifted down a gear and annual growth in RPKs remained unchanged at 4,6 percent in May, its slowest pace since January 2015,” it said.

IATA said African carriers saw freight growth in May this year 2016 of 0,3 percent compared to the same period last year. The association said the capacity of African airlines increased by 22,2 percent year-on-year “on the back of long-haul expansion continuing the trend seen since December 2015.” IATA added that despite flying less than 2 percent of industry wide international traffic, African airlines posted “strong annual growth again of 9,5 percent year-on-year in May.”

“The turnaround in fortunes from a number of difficult years coincides with expansion of long-haul networks by the region’s carriers, particularly Ethiopian Airlines,” it said.

The domestic India market remains the star performer, with volumes up more than 23 percent this year to date. IATA said the industry appeared to have stabilised the recent easing in the seasonally adjusted load factor. “The industry-wide load factor was 78,9 percent in the first five months of 2016 as a whole – 0,1 percentage points lower than in the same period of 2015. “April was the fourth consecutive month in which annual growth in available seat kilometres (ASKs) exceeded that of RPKs, mainly reflecting the easing in the latter,” it said.

Demand measured in RPKs rose 4,6 percent, compared to the same month in 2015, which was the same level achieved in April.

In the outlook IATA said, “further stimulus is likely to come through in the form of lower fares from prior falls in oil prices. But this impact is likely to wane over the course of the year.” – New Ziana