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Delays in cutting emissions set to cost developing countries hundreds of billions of dollars more

Jeffrey Gogo Climate Story
OVER 150 countries should have by now signed the Paris Agreement — and keenly awaiting to ratify it — bringing hope the accord will come into force much earlier than 2020, its original effective date.

Though this was largely expected to happen with ease when world leaders met in New York on April 22 for that specific purpose, the signing is much more than just symbolic.

It is a show of commitment by the global community of its common desire to speed up action that prevents global temperature rise from tipping the 2 degrees Celsius limit set by the Paris Agreement.

Through signing, the world is demonstrating a political willingness to drive change, which we hope to be followed by the money needed to achieve that desired change.

It also represents an obligation on the signatory to abstain from actions that derail the objectives of the treaty.

But signing is only the first step. Countries must also ratify the agreement. At least 55 countries representing a minimum 55 percent of total world greenhouse gas emissions must do both these things for it to take effect sooner.

Ratification, which will be determined by individual country circumstances on international agreements, indicates intent to be legally bound by the terms of the accord.

With last week’s signature ceremony, the agreement could enter into force as early as 2018, according to UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) executive secretary Christina Figueres.

By signing the Paris Agreement — the new global treaty to tackle climate change agreed in France on December 12 last year — Zimbabwe has taken on an important step towards the implementation of its climate plan submitted to the UNFCCC last September, hoping rich countries will meet their end of the bargain.

Ratification could take months for Zimbabwe. The agreement first has to go through Parliament — and that’s usually a cumbersome process.

The process involves the Minister of Environment, Water and Climate bringing the global pact to both the Senate and House of Assembly for scrutiny and endorsement, before it is taken to the President for final approval..

Further, Parliamentarians may have to go through a series of trainings to bring them up to speed with not just the details of the agreement, but also climate change itself.

To put things into perspective — an agreement signed in 2012 to extend the Kyoto Protocol for another seven years beginning 2013 called the Doha Amendment was endorsed by Parliament only three weeks ago.

This effectively means the country was still not bound to the protocol’s second commitment period, legally, until only a few weeks ago.

The Kyoyo Protocol has been the only legally binding global agreement on climate change, compelling rich countries to cut emissions by 5 percent, on average, below 1990 levels.

The protocol expired at the end of 2012 after a five-year period, commonly referred to as the first commitment period.

Zimbabwe acceded to the protocol only in 2009, fours after it had entered into force.

So, why is ratification important? If the agreement takes effect, it may be difficult for Zimbabwe to make important decisions that influence the implementation of the agreement, or worse still, be excluded from key decisions.

Although the Paris Agreement may not be the best deal for Zimbabwe and Africa, it provides the mandate and framework for future climate action. It promises to deliver a minimum $100 billion in climate finance per year until 2020 and beyond, likely to bring some relief for programmes that help communities adapt, more so in view of severe spending cuts at Government level.

According to its climate plan to the UNFCCC, Zimbabwe will need over $35 billion — nine times as big as its $4 billion annual spending — to cope with climate change in the decade to 2030.

More than $55 billion will be required for mitigation, to be achieved mainly in energy where emissions are to be cut by 33 percent under a business as usual situation by 2030.

And, of course, Zimbabwe needs global aid, most desperately. Its limited annual national budget barely scraps the surface of the amount of work needed to help communities cope.

Accounting for just 0,05 percent of the global emissions total, the country faces some of the harshest realities of climate change.

In a two degrees Celsius warmer world, Zimbabwe will experience frequent, severe droughts and floods, agriculture yields may fall by up to 50 percent with deep water shortages and a spike in diseases like malaria, according to the UN expert panel on climate change.

Already, a single season’s (2015 /16) El Nino-linked lack of rain has left the country in need of US$1,6 billion to feed three million hungry people, and to mitigate the drought impacts on livestock and wildlife, authorities say.

Early ratification could provide Zimbabwe a chance to tap into the funds promised under the Paris Agreement earlier, too.

But that won’t happen if the big emitters do not come to the party soon enough.

China and the US, which account for 40 percent share of the agreed global emissions needed to bring the agreement into force, have pledged to ratify by end of this year. And so has Canada (accounting for 1,93 percent of emissions), and other vulnerable small island nations like Fiji, the Maldives and Marshall Islands.

But there is no clarity from the European Union, a huge emitter which is promising to cut emissions by 40 percent compared to 1990 levels by 2030.

Each of the bloc’s 28 members’ parliaments need to approve the agreement individually before the EU parliament does the same. Countries like Poland, which rely heavily on coal, are less enthusiastic about the deal, pointing towards a potentially lengthy, bumpy process before the EU accedes.

Without the major emitters, it is unlikely the 55 percent threshold of global emissions needed to bring the agreement into force will happen quickly, even when China and the US ratified.

There is going to be need to persuade Russia and Japan, which together account for about 10 percent of world emissions, to come on board quickly, and of course, the EU.

However, it is interesting that the New York signing ceremony comes just a week after scientists took a major step to assisting the pace of action in combating climate change.

The UN expert panel on climate change agreed on April 13 in Nairobi to prepare a special report on the impacts of a 1,5 degrees Celsius warmer world.

This will provide scientific guidance on the level of ambition and action needed to implement the Paris agreement.

Clearly, at no other time in history has action to keep the world a safer place from climate change been needed than now.

God is faithful.

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