The World Bank has trimmed down Zimbabwe’s 2018 growth projection to 0,9 percent from the 1.8 percent that it projected in June last year. The projection is below the Sub-Saharan African average of 3,2 percent. According to the Global Economic Prospects report that was released by the Bank yesterday under the theme “Broad-based Upturn, but for how long”, South Africa is projected to grow by 1,1 percent this year, Nigeria 2,5 percent and Angola 1.6 percent.
The Bank seems to be bearish about the country’s medium-term growth, with 2019 growth further revised downwards to 0,2 percent from 1,7 percent. However, the country’s 2017 growth estimate was revised upwards from 2,3 percent to 2,8 percent.
“A broad-based cyclical global recovery is underway, aided by a rebound in investment and trade, against the backdrop of benign financing conditions, generally accommodative policies, improved confidence, and the dissipating impact of the earlier commodity price collapse.
“Global growth is expected to be sustained over the next couple of years and even accelerate somewhat in emerging market and developing economies thanks to a rebound in commodity exporters. Although near-term growth could surprise on the upside, the global outlook is still subject to substantial downside risks, including the possibility of financial stress, increased protectionism, and rising geopolitical tensions,” said the World Bank.
According to the Bank, what is particularly worrying are longer-term risks and challenges associated with subdued productivity and potential growth.
“However, growth is projected to moderate in countries adjusting to high public debt (eg, Ethiopia), large external imbalances (eg, Mali, Rwanda), and rising fiscal deficits (eg, Zimbabwe).”
The report notes that global growth accelerated to 3 percent in 2017, supported by a broad-based cyclical recovery encompassing more than half of the world’s economies, and is expected to edge up to 3,1 percent in 2018.
“As headwinds ease for commodity exporters, growth across emerging and developing economies is expected to pick up. However, risks to the outlook remain titled to the downside, such as the possibility of disorderly financial market adjustment or rising geopolitical tensions. — Wires.