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Victoria Ruzvidzo Business Focus
Of the two predictions, which one could be nearer the truth? We only have six months to find out. In fact what we will do as a country over the remaining months will determine the outcome. I would not want to dismiss any of these two figures because they are both quite probable. The onus is on this nation to determine whether we should expect high GDP growth or if we should just settle for the less appealing 3 percent predicted by the World Bank.

I have never doubted the Bank’s thoroughness and capacity in its research except for the fact that sometimes it is too pessimistic while in some instances it blatantly refuses to acknowledge progress where it is made, for one reason or the other. We certainly should not dismiss the figure but should use such forecasts as an impetus for this economy.

That the economy has not been performing too well is not a secret. We are all too aware of the challenges that have continued to dog the economy, with results so far not pleasing.

We certainly can do better as a nation. But at the outset, before we delve into the substance of what the big bank has said, I wish to state that there is hope for Zimbabwe. Contrast the fears by the World Bank and its sad report, with what Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor Dr John Mangudya and FBC Holdings chief executive Mr John Mushayavanhu have said about prospects for this economy.

In his maiden speech a few weeks ago, the newly appointed RBZ chief said Zimbabwe had the wherewithal to shrug off current challenges but emphasized discipline and total commitment as prerequisites for getting the economy right.

He said the onus was on all stakeholders to ensure they played their respective roles effectively.
The gross indiscipline and greediness that has gripped the economy would not augur well in the country’s quest to chart new territories.
As stated by President Mugabe recently, foreign direct investment was critical, said Dr Mangudya.

“We need to work very hard for this economy,” he said.
Mr Mushayavanhu was quoted last week as saying it was not all doom and gloom in this economy. He said there were opportunities that this country and its people could seize, to enjoy the benefits of dollarisation.

He cited growth in revenue in the first quarter of the year and increased fuel consumption, which has trebled since dollarisation, as indicative of an economy that was still alive.

He said the appointment of Dr Mangudya as governor was a major plus that had induced increased confidence in the economy. Mr Mushayavanhu stressed that although challenges were being experienced, focus on positive developments would take the economy forward.
Zimbabwe needed to take advantage of the multiple currency regime.

“If we cannot make it using US dollars then we are not global players. Much is said about the state of manufacturing in Zimbabwe but some companies like Cafca and Zimplow’s Mealie brand have consistently made profits since dollarisation.

The views expressed by the two bankers indicate that all hope is not lost for this nation. That if we focus more on the positives, the economy will soon wiggle out of its current constraints.

But going back to the World Bank report, it is still critical to look at issues raised so that they can be dealt with, where possible, before much harm is done.

In its April briefing, the bank said low investment and weak mineral prices would constrict the economy this year.
These assertions are quite sober given the state of the global economy and the effects that its turbulence has had on the local economy.

Indeed, Zimbabwe has not attracted much in the way of investment lately but spirited efforts in this regard, spearheaded by President Mugabe, should bring better results this year if applied well.

The President has invited investors to come in their numbers and efforts are being made to twig some policies and make concessions to lure FDI. The environment is becoming increasing softer for the investor and huge interest has already been registered.
We need to increase the momentum and ensure this country becomes too attractive to be ignored by serious investors.

The ZimAsset programme also acknowledges the importance of foreign investment to induce liquidity and generate the wealth and jobs that this economy needs.

On the weak mineral prices, emphasis is now being put on value addition and mineral beneficiation.
This has potential to ensure Zimbabwe earns more from its exports which have remained at about US$4 billion per year.

These initiatives have the potential to transform the economy and ensure we reach double digit growth figures in the not too distant future.
The year could easily end at a cool 7 percent real GDP growth if we get our mathematics right.

Minister Chinamasa is confident mining and agriculture will bring in the figures we require while Tourism and Hospitality Minister Walter Mzembi said his sector will bring in the numbers that will make a difference for this economy.

Agriculture is expected to grow by 7 percent on the back of improved maize and cotton yields while mining should weigh in with an 11,4 percent.
These figures are not far-fetched. They are actually achievable if all stakeholders get their act together.

The world bank anticipates a 3,3 percent growth in mining but the figure should actually be quadrupled if we apply our all in the remaining six months of the year. Many deals in this sector are currently in the cooking pot and should be served shortly to inject more life into the economy.

Vulnerability in the banking sector, policy inconsistency, fiscal slippages and a precarious balance of payments position are factors raised by the world bank as stifling growth but ways can be found to circumvent these challenges and ensure the economy grows as projected in the budget at least.

ZimAsset has laid out the roadmap but there is need for serious follow through on deliverables to ensure the economy is not off track.
What would be ideal is for all efforts to be ahead of schedule instead of the other way.

Zimbabwe cannot afford to waste another minute or an ounce of gold or whatever resource we have been blessed with. Let’s get down to business and see if we do not emerge victorious come December 31, 2014.

In God I Trust!