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Hlazo Mkandawire : Correspondent

YESTERDAY Zambians were basically faced with two options: vote for continuity by giving the ruling Patriotic Front another mandate, thereby consolidating calls for consistency in the country’s development agenda; or vote for the UPND to fix economic problems. Regardless of who emerges victorious, a soaring unemployment rate and widespread poverty will be the main challenges facing the incoming administration.With a total of 6 698 372 registered voters, many are convinced the two-horse race will be decided by urban voters, mainly in Lusaka and Copperbelt Provinces which represent the two largest voting blocks at 1 119 318 and 1 034 548 respectively. Both were PF strongholds in 2011 but UPND made significant gains in the 2015 Presidential by-election. The battle of the urban vote is cardinal to achieving 50 per cent plus 1. However, the winning margins are equally important and will influence the final outcome.

Seventy-two hours before Zambians went to the polls, the Constitutional Court passed a landmark judgement repudiating the decision by the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) to keep Ministers and their Deputies in office after the dissolution of Parliament, and consequently during the campaign period. The #ConCourt judgement demands that Ministers and Deputies pay back the salaries and allowances received after Parliament was prorogued. In an election in which the Edgar Lungu administration has reeled from charges of profligacy, this is a significant blow to the PF, and could well influence swing voters and may have legal implications after the dust of the campaigns has settled.

50 per cent plus 1 clause

For the first time since the introduction of democracy, the President is required to win the election by a 50 per cent plus 1 threshold, which has been enshrined in the Constitution through Constitution Amendment Bill Number 17 of 2015 assented by President Edgar Lungu in January, 2016. This clause represents a popularity litmus test for the political parties participating in the election, bearing in mind that none has previously secured 50 per cent of the vote in an election. On January 20 2015 Lungu won the presidential election by a narrow majority of just 27 757 votes (1.66 percent). It also marks exactly two decades since the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) won the election with a resounding 72.59 per cent.

The election is largely a two-horse race between the ruling PF led by President Lungu and United Party for National Development (UPND), the biggest opposition party, led by Hakainde Hichilema. With Lungu and Hichilema running neck-to-neck, a run-off appears extremely likely.

Such an eventuality will bring into play Edith Nawakwi, the only female presidential candidate, of the Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD). Regarded as a potential coalition partner, she will hold all the cards in the event of a run off.

A closer look at the Presidential candidates

Hakainde Hichilema, an economist and businessman, ascended to the helm of UPND after the death of the charismatic Anderson Mzoka and has contested four Presidential elections and by-elections in 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2015 with no success. Many see him as the right choice to fix Zambia’s recent economic woes, largely brought by fiscal indiscipline. Hichilema’s strategic positioning is evidenced by the UPND’s campaign slogan “HH Will Fix It”. However, others believe Hichilema lacks political experience, is something of an elitist and does not connect with the rural voter.

In addition, UPND has struggled to shrug off the ethnic tag, largely attributed to voting patterns which indicate the party has a huge following in Southern Province, the region of Hichilema’s birth. It is a charge they vociferously deny. In a country that has long avoided the pitfalls of tribalism, the perception of Hichilema as a pro-Tonga will be strongly tested in this election and may well make the difference between whether he wins or loses.

The ruling PF candidate, Edgar Lungu, a lawyer by profession, can loosely be described as a “fairy-tale President”.

Full article on www.herald.co.zw

Since 2011, Lungu has served as Deputy Minister in the office of the Vice President, later as Minister of Home Affairs, Defence and Justice respectively. He was also Acting President and custodian of the instruments of power, which became a contested issue after Sata’s passing. Internal PF wrangles ensued and led to fractions ahead of the 2015 Presidential by-election. Against all odds, after fighting Court battles, Lungu was chosen as PF Presidential candidate and narrowly won the by-election to become Zambia’s sixth President.

Since becoming President, Lungu has presided over one of the most reckless administrations. His laissez-faire style of leadership has come under scrutiny. He has been labelled unprepared and lacking a vision for the country. High levels of unemployment especially among the youth, and excessive government spending has not helped his campaign for re-election. However, he has continued on his predecessor’s path of infrastructure development constructing roads, hospital, and universities, achievements on which his campaign rests.

—–The Presidential running mate factor/effect—-

The idea of a running mate is new in Zambia and is aimed at combating costly Presidential by-elections experienced in the past. Lungu has chosen Inonge Wina, current Vice President, as his running mate, while Hichilema surprised everyone by opting for the unlikely candidate Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba, popularly known as GBM.

Mrs. Wina, sober and matronly, is regarded as a unifying figure within the PF. Edgar Lungu is repaying her loyalty having supported him during the 2014/15 internal PF battle for power. She is also held in high esteem within civil society. Crucially, as an MP in Western Province, Wina’s introduction on Lungu’s ticket was clearly calculated to split Western votes, largely dominated by UPND in the 2015 by-election.

Similarly Hakainde’s choice of Geoffrey Bwalya Mamba, a former Kasama MP, was designed to disrupt the voting pattern in the North, a PF stronghold. A household name in Zambia, GBM is also the nephew of Paramount Chief Chitimukulu of the Bemba people and his adoption is a direct statement to denounce the shadow of tribalism that has long haunted UPND.

Hlazo Mkandawire is a Zambian national and PhD candidate in media studies at Stockholm University in Sweden. This article is reproduced from New African magazine.