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LUSAKA. — Zambian lawyer Edgar Lungu’s rapid rise from backroom politician to presidential front-runner in one of Africa’s most promising frontier markets has revealed tactical nous and a steely determination that few knew lay beneath his quiet exterior. The ruling Patriotic Front (PF) candidate goes into the copper producer’s January 20 presidential by-election as slight favourite over main rival Hakainde Hichilema, a businessman whose United Party for National Development is popular with the middle-class and investors.

But with no reliable opinion polls, few experts are keen to call a clear winner in the contest to succeed President Michael Sata, who died in office in October aged 77.

“Lungu has the edge but there are so many unknowns this time around,” said Alex Ng’oma, a political analyst at the University of Zambia. “It’s too close to call.”

Lungu has been swift to tap into the working class support base of Sata, a populist leader from the majority Bemba tribe, using catch phrases and slang in traditional languages on the campaign trail, while avoiding detailed policy debates.

His promises to build roads and reduce fuel and food prices, despite IMF pressure to cut public spending, mirror the pledges that won Sata a 2011 election.

“We vote Lungu because of Michael Sata,” said Gilbert Neba, a shoe-seller on a bustling street in the capital, Lusaka.

“What Lungu says in campaigns is about the continuity of the late president. Let him finish what Sata started,” Neba added, puffing out his chest to display a “Vote Lungu” T-shirt.

However, Lungu, a tall, slim figure described by his campaign team as the “silent type”, is a very different prospect from Sata, an abrasive leader nicknamed “King Cobra” because of his venomous tongue.

He only emerged as a potential PF leader in August when Sata shocked the ruling party by firing his presumed successor, justice minister Wynter Kabimba, and replacing him with Lungu.

“If you asked anyone six months ago who would be the next president, no one would have picked Edgar,” a lawyer who has worked with Lungu told Reuters. —Reuters.