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Alexander Nepogodin

As fighting rages on in Ukraine, President Vladimir Zelensky seems determined to consolidate power.

It is part of a process that began long before Russia launched its military operation in February.

The Western-backed leader has suppressed criticism and clamped down on the opposition; beyond that, he is purging the political arena of allegedly ‘disloyal’ people who, until recently, had appeared to be close associates and allies.

For example not long ago, Prosecutor-General Irina Venediktova and the head of Ukraine’s Security Service Ivan Bakanov, a childhood friend of Zelensky, were both fired from their posts.

However, it appears that the president remains deeply vulnerable to political intrigues within the country’s elites.

In light of recent developments, both Western and Ukrainian media often claim Kiev’s military is dissatisfied with the situation in the country.

Journalists have even named a possible post-conflict successor to the ‘Ukrainian Churchill,’ as Zelensky is sometimes called — namely, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Valery Zaluzhny.

Zelensky himself dismisses these claims as speculation, an attempt to promote hostile narratives and ‘rock the boat.’

Here, RT explores the reasons behind the escalating tensions between Zelensky and Zaluzhny, and explains why Ukraine appears to be drifting toward dictatorship.

A Non-Military Conflict

There is a rumour circulating in the media that Zelensky is willing to remove Zaluzhny.

The Telegraph portal speculates that he will probably be replaced by Commander of the Ground Forces Alexander Syrsky. Meanwhile, Zaluzhny, whose popularity with the Ukrainian people is growing rapidly, is likely to be appointed minister of defence, the story goes.

Formally, this would be a promotion for the incumbent commander-in-chief, but in reality it means losing control and influence over the army, because, according to Ukrainian law, the minister of defence must be a civilian.

Another possible, widely publicised, scenario is that the current Minister of Defence, Aleksey Reznikov, will head the government while Zaluzhny takes over defence and the present Chief of Defence Intelligence, Kirill Budanov, will replace Zaluzhny as commander-in-chief.

The Telegraph suggests the motive behind such potential machinations is jealousy.

“It is not about ratings. Zelensky and Zaluzhny have perfectly fine relations, but you see, the victory can only be ‘fathered’ by one man,” a Ukrainian MP told the news portal.

Zaluzhny reportedly does not welcome any such changes but despite this, rotations in the country’s military leadership could take place as early as this month.

A conflict between the Ukrainian president and his military commanders has become a topic for discussion in Russia as well.

In response to projections in several Western media outlets about conflict-resolution scenarios, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev shared his own vision of the situation. He believes there is but a “one and a half scenario” — “a military coup in Ukraine followed by recognition of the special operation’s results.”

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has recently joined the chorus of voices discussing a possible conflict between Zelensky and Ukraine’s top military commanders led by Zaluzhny. “Ukraine is being carved up, and a conflict is brewing between the president and the military. They are the only ones who can slam their fists on the table and say, ‘Let us reach agreement, otherwise Ukraine will be wiped off from the face of the earth.’ The outcome is close. The president can not say a word there any longer, nothing depends on the president in Ukraine now, but on the military,” Lukashenko said.

Domestic Shenanigans

Both Zelensky and Zaluzhny deny the existence of any conflict between them. Ukraine’s administration asserts that these rumours are nothing more than hostile propaganda, deliberately spread to sow dissent within the country’s top military apparatus. Zelensky himself has publicly stated that Zaluzhny and the team are doing their job well. “No, I have no plans to reassign him to a different position (…). We have got a team. Is the team doing its job well? As you can see, we are still holding strong. So, yes, they are doing a good job. And once we are victorious, I will be the first to praise them,” said Zelensky in response to a question from the media.

The press interpreted these statements in their own way: rumours quickly began to spread that Zelensky had refused to replace Zaluzhny, fearing a blow to his own reputation.

Many believe that the Ukrainian President’s office wants to suppress the narrative about Zaluzhny becoming a viable opponent to Zelensky, an ‘inconvenient’ ally. Essentially, Zelensky wants to create a scenario in which his top military man could be removed from the political scene: it is much harder to fire Zaluzhny when his name is all over the internet. Ironically, it could be social media that ‘insures’ the commander-in-chief against a potential discharge.

Curiously, speculation about the conflict between Zelensky and Zaluzhny is blamed not on external, but domestic forces. Back in early August, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) uncovered a clandestine ‘bot farm’ involved in domestic propaganda, which the media linked to affiliates of former President Pyotr Poroshenko. One of its media campaigns was said to be aimed at “spreading information about a conflict between the leadership of the Office of the President of Ukraine and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine”. It was alleged that there was also a campaign to discredit the First Lady.

In light of these findings, an adviser to Zelensky, Aleksey Arestovich, accused the opposition, and specifically the European Solidarity party run by Poroshenko, of pursuing its own political ambitions that would “drag Ukraine again into a political crisis that will lead to a military defeat.”

According to Arestovich, media operations run by the ‘bot farmers’ slowed down weapons deliveries to Ukraine and promoted the narrative of a brewing conflict between Zelensky and Zaluzhny. “The people in the opposition fail to realise that this sort of work could cost more for Ukraine than direct attacks by Russian troops.

A lack of unity between the government and the army, between the government and the people, is a sure path toward statelessness and defeat. This is a purely domestic hoax, circulated in the media since April or so. Russian propaganda has picked up these fakes and spun them to their advantage. They benefit from advancing this narrative,” he said.

A New Hero Arises

Whatever the case, as open hostilities continue in Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny finds his popularity steadily growing, and not only among Ukrainians.

Recently, major stories have been published in Western media glorifying the man, calling him ‘the iron general’; they also predict that he could take over as president after Zelensky. The German newspaper Bild, for example, published an article saying that “the general gives Ukraine hope” and is a hero not only for the soldiers, but also for a large part of the population.

“Observers believe that the acclaimed general will replace current President Vladimir Zelensky once the war is over,” writes Bild. The newspaper also hints at potential tensions between the president and the general, noting that “incumbent President Zelensky is not particularly happy about the speculations that he may one day leave the presidential residence.”

Bild is not the only Western media outlet to have praised Zaluzhny. Earlier, the Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza published an extensive piece about the general, calling him “the first ataman (meaning ‘chieftain’) of Ukraine.”

Essentially, the newspaper bestowed on him the title once held by Semyon Petliura — head of the Directorate of the Ukrainian People’s Republic in 1919-1920 and an ally to the Poles. “If Michelangelo were to carve a figure of General Zaluzhny based on his publications on the Internet, the result would be a mix between David and Moses,” the newspaper writes, noting that ordinary Ukrainians view the general as a celebrity figure.

While glorifying Zaluzhny, Western media started to pillory Zelensky. A series of articles were published bashing the president. The German newspaper Die Welt, The New York Times, Sky News Australia all accused Ukraine’s president of being uncooperative in the international arena, of abetting corruption within Ukraine, exhausting the country’s armed forces, and launching a ‘draconian’ mobilization effort.

Amid all this, Zaluzhny became more and more concerned with his own political image. As Bild published its complimentary article about the general, he released a lengthy video message to his compatriots in celebration of Ukraine’s Independence Day — at the same time as Zelensky published his own address to the nation. The video consisted of Zaluzhny’s quotes interspersed with lines from Ukraine’s servicemen. “How do you know you are truly independent?” asks Zaluzhny.

“Our independence was gifted to us. Real independence is earned in blood,” answers a soldier in the video.

Another Great Purge?

As rumours spread about the removal of Zaluzhny, Ukrainian media has become flooded with reports of an imminent reshuffle in the government.

High-ranking sources of the popular Strana.ua (banned by Zelensky) claim that, although the office of the president of Ukraine has not yet finalised the list of new appointments, they are expecting some high-profile resignations: there is a strong possibility that some ministers will be fired and even [Prime Minister] Denis Shmigal’s government will be dissolved.-Russia Today

Alexander Nepogodin is an Odessa-born political journalist, expert on Russia and the former Soviet Union.