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Those who believe independent voters will elect Morgan Tsvangirai because Simba Makoni tells them to do so are wishful thinkers. The people who voted for Makoni believed in a nationalist type of change and are repulsed by the thought of a Tsvangirai presidency. It is for that reason that they voted for Makoni, who claimed to be a Zanu-PF candidate, in the first place. One would think this much is obvious.

Zanu-PF might score little in Matabeleland, losing out to Zapu and Welshman Ncube. This is tolerable as long as Tsvangirai is equally prejudiced. I hope Zanu-PF is shrewd enough to actively encourage this. It must drive a vicious emotional wedge between Tsvangirai and the people of Matabeleland by parading his disrespect for them as displayed by his bedding and impregnating of their young daughter, 21-year-old Loretta Nyathi and subsequent refusal to publicly acknowledge his child. Why is Tsvangirai afraid to be associated with that Ndebele family? Is he pandering to a tribal constituency?

Naturally, such emotive questions must be asked with the subtlety expected of a national party.  Rousing visceral anti-Tsvangirai sentiment might not seem immediately beneficial in the way of votes but will prove helpful in the event of a run-off.

Coming back to talk of political unions, Caesar Zvayi annoyed not a few opposition-leaning analysts when he appeared on Friday night’s 8 o’clock news pouring considerable scorn on the idea of a grand coalition. I can understand their irritation; his analysis, accurate as it was, had a disagreeable malevolent air to it. I suspect this was deliberate.

This is not to say the idea of a union of political convenience was of itself barren.  Hypothetically speaking, the opposition could have won with a carefully considered coalition. At the very onset of the Unity Government, Mugabe perceived the threat posed by the possibility of such a coalition. He has been working insidiously to manipulate political actors with a view to turning them into determined adversaries without any hope of unity.

He has succeeded.  I will explore the Machiavellian techniques he employed later on; for now let’s explore the coalition possibilities that are no longer possible given that the nomination court has already sat.

Simba Makoni: The underserving prince

If the MDC (all MDC’s) was serious about unseating Robert Mugabe then their only chance lay in securing the support of the fluid 10 percent independent voter constituency. Makoni standing as the presidential candidate on an MDC ticket with Tsvangirai as vice president and Welshman Ncube as second vice president or finance minister would have been a scarily powerful coalition. It would certainly excite the base.

Tsvangirai is tainted and unacceptable goods to thinkers (independent voters) but still commands a strong following. But a strong following is not enough. The problem is that the thinking 10-15 percent section of the electorate will not vote for him. They may be unhappy with Zanu-PF but they see Tsvangirai for what he is. It would be an act of gross irresponsibility to make him president.

There is a clear group of people who are not beholden to the dictates of party politics. The referendum on the new Constitution made this quite clear. Zanu-PF said yes, the MDC’s said yes but a good 6 percent of the electorate said NO.

You must add to this 6 percent because not all who voted yes did so out of mindless compliance. This is how I derive my 10-15 percent estimation. I am also cognisant of Makoni’s 8 percent in the previous election. Whether or not that 8 percent was derived from “turned” MDC or Zanu-PF supporters is entirely unimportant. What matters is that an 8 percent party-agonistic constituency exists and that it is open to persuasion.

For the avoidance of doubt, I am not adding the 6 percent and the 8 percent but am holding the two as indicative of a near-10 percent independent voter constituency. I am then assuming the existence of an additional (unproven) independent constituency that voted for the MDC-T or Zanu-PF not out of sworn commitment but having estimated that Makoni would not win but only split the vote and perhaps endanger their preferred second choice. It is hardly scientific.

A number of issues stood in opposition to such a coalition. The first is that Tsvangirai is not really interested in unseating Mugabe at any cost. He is ready to risk the whole opposition affair than hand the reins to a candidate who can bring together opposing constituents that guarantee them an additional 10 percent. If he loses so be it. His ambition is personal.

Welshman Ncube, Dumiso Dabengwa and even half-criminal elements like the secessionist Paul Siwela would be quite agreeable to joining a coalition led by Simba Makoni. The issue should never have been about Tsvangirai but about a candidate that could rally all the forces of “change” into a unified voice.

This is all political fantasy. It is fantasy because Mugabe made sure Tsvangirai’s head became too big despite his small power and that he so offended Welshman Ncube to the point where the men are now sworn enemies beyond reconciliation.

Let’s see how Mugabe slowly chipped away at Tsvangirai’s mind over the past four years.

Mugabe is my friend

There is much talk of hardliners or a “chaos faction” in Zanu-PF. This is evidence of how effective Mugabe’s seduction has been. Anyone who thinks Mugabe is a moderate is a credulous fool. I understand that even Deborah Bronnert goes around telling other ambassadors that Mugabe is fond of her. This is again more evidence of Mugabe’s political skill.

How can Mugabe be fond of the British ambassador when he wastes no time to tell the world that the British are robbers? He said it quite recently in Japan. How can Mugabe be fond of the ambassador of a country that has barred him from travelling there in an effort to humiliate him?

What he (Mugabe) has is irresistible charm. That cheerful, welcoming and agreeable demeanour, the way he holds your hand in both his hands for a deliberately prolonged moment and his tactful slow quivering voice as that of a harmless aged statesman ready to make amends for past misdeeds works magic.

If his methods can work on a clever ambassador like Deborah then it will certainly work on weaker adversaries like Tsvangirai. Mugabe is very clever. I wish people knew that. If they did, they would be a lot more careful around him.

Despite his cuddly exterior, Robert Mugabe is actually the father of all hard-liners. There is foolish talk doing the rounds of supposedly unruly service chiefs who are now completely out of control. The MDC-T has swallowed this nonsense and is wasting precious time fighting for reforms to neutralise an imaginary threat. For their part, the service chiefs don’t seem eager to dissuade anyone of this notion and have played the perfect pantomime villains by coming out to publicly denounce Tsvangirai.

These are all helpful distractions and I would be unsurprised if the CIO had a hand in spreading this sort of disinformation. Mugabe is 100 percent in control but he has managed to use smoke and mirrors to confuse the less perceptive.

I can imagine a cunning Mugabe “confiding” in Tsvangirai and “agonising” over the dangerous service chiefs and how he is unable to control them. Mugabe knows full well the effect such “information” would have on Tsvangirai’s gullible mind. The first is that Tsvangirai would believe this to be a sincere admission and empathise with the statesman who is being held at ransom by menacing generals.

The next is that Tsvangirai will run straight to the American embassy and report this state of affairs believing he is in possession of valuable intelligence when in fact he has just been played.

Most MDC-T minds have been taken in by this very clever sleight of hand. What they do not recognise is that Mugabe has his eyes on the ball. He is full of quiet anger. He has not forgotten that the British and Americans are funding the MDC-T and want to see him overthrown. He has not forgotten of the WikiLeaks cables that exposed Tsvangirai’s perfidy on sanctions.

The fact that he is not talking about these things does not mean he does not have them in mind. How then does the MDC-T come to the conclusion that Mugabe is harmless, if not a friend, and the service chiefs are their real enemies?

Mutambara — the gods keep giving

When Welshman Ncube sought to dethrone Mutambara and elevate himself to the position of Deputy Prime Minister he played right into Mugabe’s hands. Mugabe disingenuously pleaded an inability to press Mutambara into resignation while quietly encouraging him to resist the efforts to remove him. It is now pretty obvious that Mutambara and Mugabe are in fact allies and are working hand in hand. The young professor recently introduced Mugabe as the “living embodiment of the three buckets of leadership.”

Instead of parading his supposed democratic credentials and affirming his commitment to the same, Tsvangirai foolishly joined the Mutambara-Mugabe club and ganged up on Ncube. Mugabe had them exactly where he wanted. What Tsvangirai did not realise was that enmity between him and Ncube was not in his interests. If anything he should have rallied behind Welshman Ncube and argued for Mutambara to step down. If he had — even if not sincerely — he would have an ally in Ncube.

Leave Tsvangirai alone

When Tsvangirai’s messy love life hit global headlines President  Mugabe hurried to chastise the papers for publishing his sexual indiscretions. Leave him alone, he pleaded. Tsvangirai was sold — Robert Mugabe cared for him. For all these acts of “kindness” RG was reaping serious concessions in negotiations over the new Constitution.  Robert Mugabe must love having Tsvangirai for an opponent; it takes little to reel him in.

A few weeks ago the President seemed to rebuke Caesar Zvayi and his Herald crew for partisan reporting. The opposition was jubilant and took to social networks to taunt the said editor.

Simple minds. Do they really think if Mugabe were unhappy with Caesar Zvayi’s activities the said gentleman would be where he is today?
What the unthinking MDC-T does not realise is that by publicly attacking a partisan state media he strengthens his negotiating position. He can then plausibly claim that the happenings at Herald House and Pockets Hill are outside his influence. These are elementary techniques.

Welshman Ncube is a threat

Thinking minds like Professor Welshman Ncube are not equally vulnerable to such manipulation; he would have demanded real concessions. He would not have cosied up to Mugabe, wasting a good four years enjoying tea and biscuits with him only to beg Sadc for a mere 14 days to implement neglected reforms.

Mugabe knew Welshman Ncube would present problems and used Tsvangirai’s lack of foresight to knock their heads together.
I have always wanted to say these things, even as they happened, but I was restrained by the fear that perhaps Tsvangirai would wake up to these manipulations and make right with Welshman Ncube.

I speak freely in this way because the nomination court has sat and any talk of coalitions has been put to rest. Even if they kiss and make up it is now too late.
Concluding this discussion on the failed grand coalition, I notice that many are wondering why Welshman Ncube and Dumiso Dabengwa are running when they know they stand no chance of winning.

They are positioning themselves in the event of another GNU or a run-off. They are not running merely to split the opposition vote for the fun of it. In the event of a run-off they can sell their loyalty to the highest bidder. It’s a political masterstroke.

Not entirely a propos

I quite enjoyed watching Professor Tafataona Mahoso on television a few days back. He laid out an articulate argument on level playing fields as regards elections. Why should a surrogate political force that has called for sanctions to decimate the economy so as to strengthen its position be given a level playing field?

It is a very straight forward argument. We have documentary evidence of Tsvangirai privately encouraging sanctions while stating otherwise in public. Why then should such a political party be allowed to enjoy a level playing field?

Zapu deserves a level playing field, Simba Makoni deserves a level playing field, Arthur Mutambara deserves a level playing field but the MDC-T certainly does not. By aligning themselves and working in cahoots with external powers they forfeited that right many years ago.

Ndatenda, ndini muchembere wenyu Amai Jukwa