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With the end of 2019, market watchers are turning their attention to economic prospects in the New Year.

A record 168 million people worldwide will need help and protection in crises spanning more than 50 countries in 2020, the UN’s emergency relief chief has said, in an appeal for nearly US$29 billion in humanitarian aid from donors.

Climatic shocks, large infectious disease outbreaks and intensifying, protracted conflicts, have resulted in global needs increasing by some 22 million people in the past year, Mark Lowcock told journalists in Geneva, at the launch of the UN humanitarian affairs coordination office’s (OCHA) Global Humanitarian Overview.

Yemen tops the list again

In terms of sheer scale, Yemen “is still going to be the world’s worst humanitarian crisis” in 2020 after nearly five years of war, the UN official maintained.

“The number of people in need is expected to remain close to this year’s levels, that’s around 24 million people, 80 per cent of the population.”

Detailed in the Global Humanitarian Overview 2020, the appeal for Yemen is $3,2 billion.

Funding is also needed for a multitude of other protracted conflicts, including Afghanistan ($732 million for 9,4 million people), Burundi ($104 million for 1,7 million people), Iraq ($520 million for 4.1 million people), Syria ($3,3 billion for 11 million people) and the Central African Republic ($388 million for 2,6 million people), among others.

Nearly 800 attacks against health workers and facilities

To illustrate a growing disregard by combatants for international humanitarian law, Mr Lowcock highlighted nearly 800 attacks against health workers and healthcare facilities in the first nine months of 2019, which claimed 171 lives.

The unexpected scale of infectious disease outbreaks has also helped drive needs to unprecedented levels.

“In Africa, in the first three months of this year, there were 700 percent more measles cases than in the same period last year”, Mr Lowcock said, a likely reference to the more than 5 000 measles fatalities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since January.

Economics

Huang Jun, chief economist for China at Forex.com, estimates that China’s gross domestic product should come in at about 6 percent.

That would be on the lower end of the government’s growth target of 6 percent to 6,5 percent.

Looking forward, the crystal-ball gazers are sizing up the pros and cons of economic growth.

Standard Chartered is forecasting 6,1 percent growth for 2020, above the general market consensus. The bank said that despite trade and housing headwinds, we see tailwinds from policies, car sales and the inventory cycle.

Ding Shuang, chief economist for China and North Asia at the bank, said: “We think the government will set the 2020 growth target at around 6 percent, providing policy support for a slightly higher growth rate.”

Export growth is expected to return to positive levels, bolstered by a more stable global economy and the conclusion of the “first phase” of trade talks between the US and China.

Meanwhile, despite the agreement on a “phase one” trade deal, ongoing frictions between the US and China remain a risk to economy.

Loggerheads over trade and technology, industrial policy, cyber-security and geopolitical issues are likely to persist for an extended period.

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to average about 3,5 percent in 2020; nonetheless, South Africa’s domestic economic outlook for 2020 remains a tough and sombre one, with poor growth prospects.

Kenya’s economy is expected to grow at a faster rate next year, thanks to a number of positive factors.

A major factor is the repeal of the interest cap law in November. Others are heavy rainfall experienced during the last months of the year and favourable government policies that support small businesses.

The scrapping of interest rate law, for instance, is expected to enhance credit flow to the private sector, brewing economic activities, job creation and improved income for households.

President Uhuru Kenyatta’s order to state agencies and counties to clear pending bills is also expected to increase capital supply in the economy, boosting the expansion of businesses.

Lebanon

The Lebanese people know what awaits them in 2020; the political, economic, and social crises that erupted in the second half of 2019 will not be resolved on this year’s last day.

The formation of the new government still faces obstacles.

The banking procedures, which saw the imposition of restrictions on US dollar transfers abroad, and on the withdrawal of deposits from banks, resulted in economic contraction, bankruptcy and the dismissal of employees.

These restrictions persist and may get tougher in the New Year as long as there is no government to generate confidence.

As for the unprecedented demonstrations that erupted last October against the ruling class, the people participating in them are still worried and angry.

According to political and economic experts, the new government, if it ever sees light, will face the challenge of preventing total collapse, or alleviating its effects, under stressful circumstances, while protests might even overthrow it.

The new year’s budget indicates that the state’s revenues have decreased in large part due to the decline in tax collecting.

The draft 2020 budget, which was transferred to the Parliamentary Money Committee, expected that revenues would total 20 trillion lira ($13,3 billion), but the Ministry of Finance adjusted this number in light of what was collected in 2019, and reduced the expected revenues to about 14 trillion lira.

The figures for the 2019 budget were disastrous, as public financial figures showed that revenues collected until last October were estimated at a little under 11,5 trillion lira, compared to an expected figure of 18,78 trillion.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s economic woes, caused by six months of street protests, will stretch into 2020 as the devastated sectors of retail and tourism struggle to recover against the backdrop of slowing global trade.

The economy is already in a technical recession — having contracted for two straight quarters.

It has shrunk by 2,9 percent in the July-September period following a 0,4 percent contraction in the April-June period.

This marked a GDP contraction of 0,6 percent in the year to date from 2018.

There is more bad news in the pipeline.

“Two-thirds of the year-on-year negative growth of 2,9 percent in Hong Kong was caused by these violent shocks and social unrest.

“Although the statistics for the fourth quarter will be released early next year, judging from the situation in these months, it is unavoidable to continue to show negative growth,” Financial Secretary Paul Chan said in a blog post.

Democracy

In many countries around the world, citizens took to the streets this year to vent their anger against political elites, suggesting that democracy is in crisis.

In Latin America alone, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua — some of them among the region’s fastest-growing economies – have been rocked by social unrest not seen for many years.

While some grievances are unique to their respective countries, most of the protests were at least partly fuelled by a perception that the political establishment is unable to address popular demands, be they greater political accountability to combat corruption, as in Honduras, an erosion of democracy, as in Bolivia, or inequality and insufficient public services, as in Chile.

This trend is likely to continue into 2020. In many developing countries — particularly in those that saw solid economic growth during the commodities boom — progress over the past decade produced a new middle class that is more politically aware and demanding, and political elites and governance structures have failed to adapt. — Wires.