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Herald Reporter

The third and worst wave of Covid-19 infection continues to retreat very slowly in Zimbabwe, with the rolling average of new daily infections having fallen by 25 percent from its July 15 peak by the middle of this week, but daily infections were still running just under 50 times the low level seen between the second and third waves.

The rolling average, a seven-day average recalculated each day, has been found a useful way of seeing trends. It rose from the interwave low level of around 35 new cases a day in early June to 2 355 on July 15 and since then has been creeping down, very slowly, to the average of 1 747 new cases a day seen by Thursday.

The slowing of the advance in new cases and the turn of the tide to small daily reductions in average was a direct result of the enhanced level four lockdown announced by President Mnangagwa after the initial ban on social and religious gatherings had not slowed the wave enough although it certainly stopped it from reaching tsunami levels.

But with daily infections still averaging almost 50 times the interwave rate, it was obvious that this level of lockdown had to continue until a lot more progress had been made. 

And the worrying factor is that the infections were spreading across Zimbabwe from the original hotspot foci in the tobacco towns of the Mashonaland provinces and the border towns.

The death rate has shown some signs of hope. The rolling average of daily deaths was moving remorselessly upward to July 21, then dipped slightly for several days before moving upwards again to reach an average of 79 by Thursday.

Death rates lag infection rates, starting to rise later and fall later because most people who die of Covid-19 die one to three weeks after being infected, but the test that diagnoses them might only be done when they are seriously ill, although for some it is done early because they are married to someone who is sick or have been a known contact of someone who is sick.

Vaccinations have been slowing in the last week after two excellent weeks of growing numbers. 

The seven days to Thursday saw 306 953 jabs, the second best on record after the previous week, but still a slow down although we are now seeing a surge in second jabs reflecting the acceleration of the programme four weeks ago and those who got their first jabs then now coming in for the next one.