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RADAR —

The Zimbabwe Independent has just called it “coalition impossible” — an allusion to that hackneyed “mission impossible” phrase.

In many respects, the mooted coalition among Zimbabwe’s opposition parties is just that, due to a myriad factors.

Yet it is not inconceivable.Somehow, the parties may find themselves in a broad bed together ranged against zanu-pf, not just as a function of common opposition sense but also because they may have overcome whatever problems they have now — which we will soon try to unpack — and present a united front.

That is the flip side of “mission impossible”, if by that what quickly comes to your mind is that blockbuster movie franchise starring Tom Cruise.

There are also external hands — the one of traditional Western sponsors who, when the time comes, are expected to put an abrupt end to the child play and sibling rivalry currently underway as opposition parties try to unite by themselves without much discernible refereeing from outside.

Time will be, we are pretty sure, when the child play will be called off and peace announced in the house.

The master(s) will have spoken.

Yet an invisible hand may intervene to smoothen and even out the process suppose one leader of the contending centres of power decides to do the impossible and concedes leadership to the other before 2018.)

A form of contrived Deus ex machina.

On both cases, the coalition will take lurching shape as directed by an outside agency paying little regard to whether the protagonists like or hate each other.

It will be necessity.

It will be the piper’s tune.

It will be the will of gods.

If it comes to pass.

As it stands the coalition will not stand: there is so much mistrust, bad blood and general disagreement.

For the benefit of those not in the know, Zimbabwe has up to 50 political parties that are collectively ranged against the ruling zanu-pf party, President Mugabe’s party in power since 1980.

Of these only a handful are reckoned with: MDC-T led by Morgan Tsvangirai, Zimbabwe People First (Joice Mujuru), MDC (Welshman Ncube) and PDP (Tendai Biti).

Tsvangirai once led a united MDC comprising also Ncube and Biti until splits in 2005 and 2013 made them leaders of their own organisations, respectively.

Tsvangirai is a seasoned campaigner since the broad church of disgruntled labour, student movements, civil society and other forces came together to form the MDC in 1999.

He has commanded a lot of grassroots support — which subsists to this day, more or less.

The same support, which has pared down and diminished by degrees has not been enough to land Tsvangirai into power bar an attempt in 2008 where elections in March of that year produced a hung parliament and saw him nose in front in the first round presidential poll before purporting to withdraw, and losing, officially, the run-off.

But his efforts were enough to earn him a place in Government as Prime Minister in what was known as the Inclusive Government or Government of National Unity.

That place in the sun ended with a woeful loss in 2013.

He also lost the faith of the likes of Tendai Biti who had grown tired of his “losership”, sorry, leadership.

Not that Biti himself had any demonstrable acumen.

He is yet to be tested in an election — unlike Ncube who held his own in 2008 before collapsing in 2013 — so is Joice Mujuru, former vice president of the republic.

So, this self-evident fact is problematic, if only paradoxical: of all these opposition leaders only Tsvangirai has a demonstrable track record to parade at huge crowds.

The same crowds are always a point to demonstrate popularity and wave as a bargaining chip.

But, ironically, all those crowds do not translate into votes, let alone winning ones.

Tsvangirai clings to them and to his power.

In any coalition, he brings that to the table — and you begin to think that Tsvangirai believes he owns these people.

Which could be true, to some extent in this politics of personalities.

The politics of Africa.

Deadlock

Boy, it’s a deadlock.

These opposition parties need each other, but they do not want each other.

They deeply resent each other, too, especially in the case of Tsvangirai and Biti and Ncube.

The latter two are contemptuous of the man of few letters that used to be their boss.

Just this week, Biti was heard calling Tsvangirai an idiot.

They accuse him of being a dictator and prone to violent tendencies.

Yet for any coalition, these men would need Tsvangirai — and let’s get this straight, it’s not the other way round.

You do not have to like Tsvangirai to acknowledge this fact.

So, a coalition between Tsvangirai and these former lieutenants is close to impossible.

Tsvangirai just a few days ago called these guys traitors.

He questioned where they had gone to now see the desirability of working together again.

They are unforgiven.

And Tsvangirai’s spokesperson, Luke Tamborinyoka, makes it clear in a piece in Newsday as he not only flaunts the “people” factor but also shows open contempt for prospective partners.

He scoffs at outfits with “funny names” such as “OK Mart and Ivhu; “Spar People’s Movement”, “Pick’n Pay for Democracy or even Tamborenyoka Bazaars for Democratic Change”.

The disdain doesn’t end there.

There are some individuals with no institutions behind them that are desperate for a coalition, he tells us.

“These so-called parties have a man as president, his brother as secretary-general and the son as the chair of the youth league,” Luke spits out, divining that, “Any coalition with this kind of institution is a coalition with an individual family and not with a credible political party that encapsulates the collective interests of a diverse people.”

He is not done.

He says there are “some arrogant individuals with no people behind them, who think they are educated and fit to lead and regard everyone else as an idiot”.

“These are people who are unsure about how to proceed. In one instance, they want what they call a National Transitional Authority; itself a technical creature that is expected to be the cure for a purely political problem. In the same breadth, they also want a coalition and they seem undecided as to where their true conviction lies.

“People’s Democratic Party leader, Tendai Biti, wants a transitional authority. He also wants a coalition with everyone, but in the same breath publicly attacks Tsvangirai as a fool and an idiot. If he is an idiot, why are you desperate to work with him?” Luke inquires.

He regrets this “kind of toxic and condescending attitude that kills the issue of a coalition even before it even begins”.

“One begins to see that to some, the calls for a coalition are not genuine. They are meant to ride on the back of the support of other leaders when, in actual fact, you hold those same leaders in contempt!

“Sorry, if it were me, I would not surrender my own political traction for others to ride upon, when they have no respect for me at a personal level.

“True coalitions are built on mutual respect for each other; not by tweeting every day that Tsvangirai is a fool, yet you expect to work with him.”

A window

And if you look closely, beyond the low intensity war of words, there is no real acrimony between Tsvangirai and Mujuru.

And haven’t they worked together for over a decade now, under the surface?

The two are currently sizing each other up, courting.

The burden is on Mujuru to prove what she can bring to the table for all her previous role in Government and liberation credentials.

Mujuru has to demonstrate that she has the numbers, and this, strictly and in a limited sort of way, has been by way of rallies where she and her minions have even tried to show a brave face in preparation for a faceoff with Tsvangirai, even if friendly.

There has not been an election to test her.

She has conveniently – perhaps fatally – avoided elections.

A common insult directed at her is that she is not her own woman, all that she is and has having been thrust upon her.

Both sets of supporters haggle.

Mujuru is accused of smelling Zanu-PF, and such is a strong sentiment among the MDC faithful that they do not want her anywhere close, let alone taking a leading role in a coalition.

The likes of Mavhaire can afford to go on mountaintops and proclaim Mujuru as the real Chosen One: the one with liberation credentials; and the one that ate book – all to spite Tsvangirai.

Yet when all the dust settles, the two are likely to work together and a matrix has to be forged.

Big external hands will eventually wrought this.

But the same external hand could play a cruel, debilitating and unexpected movement: what if someone were to be removed from the picture because he is not deemed fit by dint of political pedigree, ill health or even death?

It throws the whole thing into a tailspin, but one with unexpected results for coalition too.