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Ruth Butaumocho

African Agenda

The start of a new year often brings with it a glimmer of hope and prospects of better opportunities across the economic and social divide. 

It is within the same vein that millions of Africans are hoping for the revival of their waning fortunes after experiencing economic downturn in the last two years.

Still smarting from the effects of Covid-19 that ravaged the whole world for a good two years, beginning in 2020, Africa is yet to recover from turbulent times that saw companies closing and thousands losing their jobs.

In the just ended year, Africa’s economic recovery was disrupted by a range of internal and external shocks. Some of the challenges included adverse weather conditions, rapidly rising rates of inflation, higher borrowing costs and softer demand in major export markets.

While some of the factors are likely to continue this year, there are already pockets of hope which could actually spur the continent’s Gross Domestic Product which is forecast to grow by 3,2 percent in 2023. 

Like the rest of the world, Africa will need to tread carefully again this year, amid growing concerns of new Coronavirus variants, extreme weather conditions, recession in some parts of the world and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Continued growth for AfCFTA 

Following the successful launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in 2018, there has been a steady growth in the trade fair, which is expected to change Africa’s trajectory on trade, once it gains publicity confidence.

Although it took longer than necessary for AfCFTA to start trading owing to operational challenges as well as the outbreak of Covid-19, last year saw a positive development in trade with several countries recording stable business in trade.

Last year, Kenya shipped locally-made car and truck batteries as well as a consignment of Kenyan-grown tea to Ghana. On the other hand, Rwanda also exported processed coffee beans to the West African nation. 

At that pace, there is hope of increased trade from various countries, which could result in a boon in trade in the continent.

Economic and social benefits of digitalisation 

The push and pull for digital services will continue unabated in 2023 and beyond, a development that is expected to boost opportunities in several sectors, across. 

Digitalisation initiatives and strategies are likely to benefit agricultural supply chains, manufacturing operations, transport and logistics services, formal and informal retailing, health and education provision, recreation and entertainment, financial services and government services. 

Such robust changes would be good in supporting information communication technology sectors as well as technology hubs that are sprouted across Africa. 

Once digitalisation has been put in motion, there would be a huge appetite for communication and mobile network coverage, which in turn will spur infrastructure and service provision investment in the year ahead.

Major power projects 

will gain traction

Africa suffered severe electricity shortages last year, which adversely affected economic operations across the continent.

Power black outs, rationing, rolling shortages, and load shedding hampered many countries’ development, including African economic giants, a situation that could worsen in the next few years, if necessary steps are not taken to address the problem.

Apart from perennial power shortages, and lack of foreign currency for power imports and bolstering energy, the situation was also worsened by adverse effects of climate change.

Power shortages also adversely affected business operations as most companies battled load shedding, intermittent cuts and massive machinery breakdowns at some of the power plants across Africa.

With more power shortages expected again this year, several countries will embark on major solar and other renewable related power projects to bring more power generation capacity on stream in 2023. 

The various power generations are expected to be initiated at country level with some already taking shape across the continent. 

Several such projects are nearing completion and are part of a large pipeline of hydroelectric, solar and wind projects that will see renewable installed capacity accelerate from 2023 onwards.

Boost in Food Security

Following disruptions of goods movement-including food- as a result of the Russia and Ukraine conflict, many African countries found themselves battling with food shortages early last year.

With the two countries said to account for 30 percent of traded wheat and rice, many countries in the Horn of Africa were caught flat-footed and had to look for alternatives from other regions to ameliorate their dwindling supplies as the conflict raged on. 

The alternatives were slow in coming. Such an unforeseeable situation presented an area of opportunity for African countries to bolster their food production capacity, increase inter-regional integration, as well as increase resilience against such external shock.

In the last few months calls have been growing louder and louder for Africa to reduce its dependence on food imports. 

Dr Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank, emphasised this point in a recent interview, declaring the urgent need to “intervene now and support Africa to produce the food.”

Several countries have since heeded Dr Adesina’s call and are channelling their resources towards agriculture. Late last year, the world witnessed a boon in agricultural activities as countries frantically increased hectarage of cereals, rice, maize and other staple crops to fend off food shortages. Zimbabwe has not been left out and last year, it recorded the highest wheat harvest in 56 years. 

According to Agricultural and Rural Development Advisory Services, the country achieved a milestone in wheat production by harvesting 375 000 tonnes of the cereal this year.

During the 2022 winter cropping season, 78 063 hectares were put under wheat, registering the highest hectarage since independence and followed by plantings in 2004 (70 585ha) and 2005 (67 261ha). The country had targeted to produce 380 000 tonnes of wheat but part of the crop was affected by early rains and veld fire.

The good harvest was a result of the Government’s agricultural transformation anchored on active private and public sector participation. Already optimism is high that with good rains, the country is expected to achieve the same in maize, soyabeans and sugar beans production. 

Neighbouring Zambia and Malawi have taken the same path of increased hectarage to bolster food security for their people.

While it is important for African countries to develop strategies to address the agricultural downturn in response to the Russia and Ukraine conflict, it has become imperative for countries to fulfil their commitments to existing obligations, such as the 2003 Maputo Declaration on Agriculture and Food Security of the African Union (AU). 

The Declaration contains several important decisions regarding agriculture, and prominent among them is the “commitment to the allocation of at least 10 percent of national budgetary resources to agriculture and rural development policy implementation within five years”. 

In addition, countries are also expected to raise agricultural productivity by at least six percent, commitment which Zimbabwe and several other countries have been able to meet.

Outside mere increasing hectarage, African governments should now also focus on significantly improving the enabling environment for local agriculture such as infrastructural development like construction of dams, roads and storage facilities as part of their long term measures to ensure food security across the continent.

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