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Jacob Zuma

Marianne Merten Correspondent
President Jacob Zuma is under pressure. That it’s not quite going his way emerged strongly when parliament, in an unprecedented move, postponed the State of the Nation Address (SONA) with only a day to go.

But it’s politics and nothing is straightforward. And so Wednesday’s urgent special ANC National Executive Committee meeting set to discuss Zuma’s future was cancelled late on Tuesday evening. It’s a political Mexican stand-off.

Nothing is straightforward. And definitely not in an ANC that President Jacob Zuma has had at his beck and call, throughout the Nkandla debacle, the damaging March 2017 midnight cabinet reshuffle that changed the finance portfolio leadership, the #GuptaLeaks revelations about state capture, waning election fortunes and various court challenges, to how his administration does its governance job.

In a high-pressure political week that saw the unprecedented move by parliament to postpone the SONA, Wednesday’s urgent extraordinary ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting to discuss Zuma’s exit from the Union Buildings was cancelled at the 11th hour. It’s a political Mexican stand-off. And one that could well revolve around the terms of Zuma’s exit and the Teflon politician’s determination to set these.

Political space for a meeting of the ANC NEC, the party’s highest decision-making structure between national conferences, to decide on Zuma’s future was clinched when parliament postponed the State of the Nation Address on Tuesday, five days after maintaining it would go ahead, albeit with an all-important rider of possible extraordinary events.

When National Assembly speaker Baleka Mbete announced the postponement on Tuesday, it was as a decision “in the best interest of parliament and the country”, and in an effort “to create room for establishing a much more conducive political atmosphere in parliament”.

A subsequent statement from the president echoes this nod to political dynamics:

“The president has requested the postponement due to certain developments which make it not conducive to successfully hold the sitting and deliver the SONA,” it said.

That Zuma recognised the impossibility of delivering the address, something he is reported to have been quite adamant about, is tantamount to acknowledging a misstep in the political manoeuvring.

Another disrupted, chaotic SONA would have extracted a high political price for the governing ANC, which since Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa’s election as party president at its December national conference has touted “renewal” and “transition”.

Since then, the governing party’s sights have firmly been set on what the ANC on Monday called the “management of the transition between the 5th and 6th administration of government”.

But it could have been as easy as the ANC NEC deciding on face-saving phraseology for its recall of President Jacob Zuma from the Union Buildings – and then Zuma, who repeatedly and publicly has proclaimed himself a loyal deployee of the ANC, resigns and exits the government stage.

Section 90(1) of the constitution provides for an acting president “during a vacancy in the office of president” – a resignation creates such a vacancy – with the country’s deputy president listed as first in line for that post, then a minister, and last, the National Assembly speaker. There is little that is needed beyond the administration of the oath of office by either the chief justice, or a judge appointed by him, in a ceremony that takes as little as a few minutes.

And Section 90(2) of the constitution states: “An acting president has the responsibilities, powers and functions of the president.” There is no limit to an acting president’s term. No election of a new president in the National Assembly is needed; it could just simply be acting president Cyril Ramaphosa, currently South Africa’s deputy president and the ANC’s president. No resignation of cabinet ministers needed either, although that may happen, voluntarily or through a reshuffle.

All that’s required would be a good dollop of political will and nerves of steel in what is set to be a terse meeting of the ANC NEC, where factions in favour and against Zuma remain finely balanced, if fluid, in the changing political winds.

But Tuesday night’s cancellation of that special urgent ANC meeting to discuss Zuma’s future opened a new space for political machinations. – Daily Maverick.