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Sitelani Tsiko-Innovations Editor

Zimbabwe will host the 29th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF 29) this month to generate a forecast for the 2024-2025 rainfall season for the SADC region.

The forum will attract more than 150 climate experts drawn from all 16 SADC member states.

This is coming at a time when the country is also hosting the 44th SADC Summit of Heads State and Government on August 17 under the theme: “Promoting Innovation to unlock opportunities for sustained economic growth and development towards an Industrialised SADC.”

The Meteorological Services Department deputy director Ms Tambu Pasipanodya said a series of meetings will run from August 19 until August 30 when regional climate experts will issue the seasonal rainfall and temperature forecast for the 2024 -2025 cropping season.

A climate experts meeting will run from August 19-25, SARCOF 29 Forum August 26-28, the 6th SADC ClimSA PMC steering committee meets August 29 while the SADC Sub-Committee (SCOM) meeting for directors of national meteorological services within the SADC will be held from August 29-30 this year.

“The 29th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum is a key event for enhancing climate resilience in the SADC region,” said Ms Pasipanodya.

“These forums are crucial for providing accurate and actionable climate forecasts as well as fostering regional collaboration in the field of climate science,” she said.

The forum offers a vital platform for stakeholders across the SADC region to come together and share insights on climate trends, forecasts and their implications.

A seasonal climate outlook helps SADC countries to plan and prepare for varying climate conditions given the region’s vulnerability to climate variability and change.

Climate and weather experts will also review the previous rainfall season and forecast the nature of the upcoming season across the region.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and other global weather bureaus are getting early signals that a La Nina weather event may form in the Pacific Ocean later this year, something that could increase chances of wetter conditions in Zimbabwe and other countries in southern Africa during the 2024/25 cropping season.

Ms Pasipanodya said a clear picture of the outlook will only be made when the experts meet and generate consensus.

Southern Africa is reeling from the worst drought in years due to an El Nino — the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

This naturally occurring event often triggers extreme weather events globally, from fierce droughts, wildfires and heatwaves to deadly flooding and tropical storms.

Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi have all declared drought as national disasters and have launched appeals for food aid to support millions of hungry people.

In Zimbabwe, latest official figures show that 6 million people in communal areas and 1,7 million in cities and towns require food assistance. About 6,6 million people need help in Zambia after the country experienced the driest farming season in more than four decades while about nine million people in Malawi are struggling with the devastating effects of floods and droughts caused by El Niño.

In May this year, SADC launched a US$5,5 billion regional humanitarian appeal to meet the food needs of nearly 30 million people across southern Africa affected by the El Niño induced drought and floods.

“At this year’s forum we hope to give an improved forecast accuracy to better inform decision-making processes. It will include integrating the latest modelling techniques and observational data,” Ms Pasipanodya said.

“Climate services are crucial for providing timeous, accurate and crucial agro-climatic data and information to help communities in adapting and mitigating to the effects of climate change and variability.”

Last season, large swathes of Southern Africa experienced significantly below average rainfall, with Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Angola, Mozambique and Botswana receiving less than 20 percent of the typical rainfall expected for the last half of the season in 2024 with devastating results for the population largely depending on rain-fed agriculture.

The drought has compounded food insecurity and malnutrition levels, including high food prices, ongoing recovery from floods, as well as agricultural pests and diseases.

The drought also affected water supplies for domestic, industrial and agricultural — irrigation and livestock — usage.

Climate experts say since the early 2010s, the El Niño weather pattern has induced droughts and heatwaves in the Zambezi region, causing a drop in the water levels at Lake Kariba which provides water for power generation for Zimbabwe and Zambia.

Low water levels in Lake Kariba have had a huge impact on energy production, tourism, fisheries and the livelihoods of people in the area.

Zimbabwe and Zambia are facing severe power cuts as water levels at the Kariba Dam, the world’s largest man-made reservoir, have plunged due to the current drought.

This has resulted in increased blackouts pushing businesses to use generators and solar power and the countries to spend more power imports.

Forage for livestock was also negatively impacted and reductions in pasture availability will be experienced in the worst affected areas as the dry season progresses, the report indicated.

Only a few areas in the SADC region received good rainfall for much of the season.

Tanzania and a few other countries received good rains resulting in higher maize output in parts of East Africa.

Agricultural experts say Zimbabwe and most other SADC governments now need to put in place “risk-reduction measures” that promote drought-tolerant crop varieties, irrigation systems and cash transfers to cushion the impact on farmers.

In Zimbabwe and most other countries in SADC, the utilisation of water for irrigation by the agriculture sector is still below capacity and needs to be urgently revitalised.

Through irrigation infrastructure development with the support of international partners, Zimbabwe and most other countries in the region can tackle problems facing smallholder farmers such as low incomes and living standards, poor nutrition, housing and health and education.