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Minister Chinamasa

Victoria Ruzvidzo : Business Focus

The Ministry of Finance portfolio has never been an easy one, not one for the faint-hearted but for those with the stamina and wherewithal to weather the storms that always erupt once in a while. In fact sitting on the edge becomes the lifestyle, even in the most stable of economies. This portfolio is always a tricky one.What more for Minister Patrick Chinamasa, who has had to superintend over an economy that is heavily constrained by one factor or the other. He has had to summon all he has to keep the economy afloat. He has not always been successful. Some challenges have been quite overwhelming for him but the good thing is that he has remained standing. He has a never-say-die attitude and it helps when the going gets as tough as our economy has been.

GDP growth has dropped from double-digit figures three years ago to 1,2 percent for 2016. The effects of this slide are quite evident in the economy today.

This afternoon Minister Chinamasa is expected to be at his best as he presents the 2016 Mid Term Review statement in Parliament. We obviously are not interested in his eloquence or mastery of the English language but all we expect is something that injects life into the economy. Of course it would be naïve of anyone to expect that the traditional briefcase will contain something that will immediately deal with deflation, cash challenges, industrial capacity, the ballooning debt and a host of challenges that confront the economy today. But we expect Minister Chinamasa to at least announce measures and packages that will bring tangible results in the short term while giving hope as regards the future.

The Minister has to earn his salary despite the fact that it might be coming to him in dribs and drabs. He handles the Government purse anyway. He is paid to run the economy well and he must do just that. We are not being mean but realistic. Minister Chinamasa should give us some hope that literally, tomorrow will be a brighter day. I am sure he has been consulting his local and foreign advisors and other stakeholders on measures to put the economy back on track. He surely must have a trick or two on how we can ride the rough terrain that has characterised our economy.

The other day someone said they had tightened their belt over and over and now they have had to punch another hole. Any further tightening will rupture their intestines. Therefore, the Finance Minister needs to present something that will help her loosen the belt and breathe normally.

That is why I said right from the beginning that Minister Chinamasa faces a daunting task this afternoon he needs our prayers. The fact that he has taken nine months to announce the mid-term policy is indicative of the challenges he faces to put the jig-saw puzzle together. He has been up and down the globe seeking answers, partners and investors to help steer the economy back on track. He usually looks composed and on top of the situation but sometimes I cannot help thinking that its all pretence. Deep inside he is a worried man. Who wouldn’t be when paying a small portion of the civil service requires nothing short of a miracle.

But I always find comfort in the statement that no winter lasts forever! The summer for this economy is coming soon and I hope Minister Chinamasa’s statement this afternoon will prove me right. Industry is in trouble. Many firms are closing shop while others are hanging by the thread hence they are looking up to Minister Chinamasa to pull a trick by announcing facilities and rescue packages that will enable them to retool, purchase raw materials and become competitive again.

Many that have lost jobs are expecting to be rehired or at least be paid their severance packages. While those on the verge of losing jobs are praying for something that will secure their employment. This is all pinned on what the good Finance Minister will say this afternoon. Farmers are quite excited about the Government’s Command Agriculture programme and have already registered at least 300 000 hectares for the programme. The initiative has immense potential to transform the sector and save the country millions of dollars that have been spent in importing food, particularly grain.

But this is only the beginning Minister Chinamasa, they are now waiting for Government to deliver the inputs on time so that the anticipated yields and hectarage can be attained. The programme has to be operationalised before the onset of the rains so that everything humanely possible is done. The hope of millions is pinned on this potentially successful programme. Again it all points to Minister Chinamasa’s ability to gather the resources and disburse them timely.

The agricultural sector has been constrained by incessant drought and inadequate preparation hence Command Agriculture is expected to bring new tidings to the sector. Civil servants are expecting Minister Chinamasa to bring good news that will allow consistent and predictable payment dates.

They have not hidden their displeasure at the irregular salary payments that have made budgeting and planning quite difficult if not impossible. While these are challenges that many have to put up with in this environment, we expect the Finance Minister to announce strategies to redress the anomaly.

The need for public sector reform becomes even more compelling under such circumstances. Presently 80 percent of the national budget goes towards the civil service bill. This is untenable given the huge demands for resources in this economy.

Arguably the biggest issue of the day could be the introduction of the bond notes. The minister is expected to give the dates when these will be brought into circulation, initially as an export bonus scheme.

Speculation has been rife over the past few months about the introduction of the bond notes. I have witnessed the dissent on the proposal slowly turning into excitement as some who initially resisted their introduction, now feel that the bond notes will help arrest the biting cash shortages that have made a trip to the bank a gruelling exercise. It is not funny at all to spend the whole day in the queue for $50 at best or nothing at worst.

So some constituencies feel it is better to have the bond notes than nothing at all. Strategies to tame the long queues will certainly be most welcome. This other day my heart sank when I saw 80-year-olds queuing at one of the buildings societies to collect their pensions. They could obviously not stand for hours and ended up sitting on pavements as they awaited their turn with pain and fatigue written on their faces. It was not a pleasant sight at all.

We await to hear what Minister Chinamasa and Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor Dr John Mangudya have in store for us regarding this issue. Another sore point that needs urgent redress is Zimbabwe’s rising debt. Effort has been directed towards a repayment strategy but this appears to have come off the rails according to market fears. We expect Minister Chinamasa to update us on the status quo.

In yesterday’s The Herald Business economists urged Minister Chinamasa to review taxes in the mining sector and for the rest of the economy to give companies breathing space. Here, the Minister will have to play his cards well. He needs to increase revenue but at the same time he must relax tax levels for businesses to survive. It’s a catch 22 situation.

Minister Chinamasa is aware that all eyes will be on him this afternoon, both literally and metaphorically. He needs to play his cards well and present a Mid Term policy statement that will ensure the last three months of the year are more friendly to all Zimbabweans. Zimbabwe is not a poor country. It has the resources and the skills to transform its fortunes. Strategies are, therefore, required to ensure that the economy benefits from its resources. The potential is there but Minister Chinamasa will need to press the right button to make things happen.

Can he pull a trick or two? Only time will tell. In a few hours’ time we will know.

All the best Minister Chinamasa. It’s your day so please arise and shine!

In God I trust!

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