EDITORIAL COMMENT : Let’s make the most of good rainfall forecast

THE regional forecast by the 29th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (Sarcof-29), the meteorological experts in SADC, has produced a reasonable degree of good news for Zimbabwean farmers for the coming summer season. Sarcof-29 predicts normal to above rainfall for most of the season, and particularly the most critical part of the season.

The scientific experts have gone far beyond just ticking the box for a La Nina rather than an El Nino or neither, and have been using the data they have been gathering over the decades to feed in the new conditions and see what is most likely, at least on a regional scale.

Regionally this does have effects. Northern Sadc does worse with a La Nina, central Sadc tends to do better, and the far south, mainly South Africa, can have a drier belt close to the coast. El Ninos tend to move the rainfall bands in the opposite direction, hence the emergency across the central belt this year.

But we must recognise that, as with all forecasts, we are talking about probabilities, not certainties, and the scientific experts use the expression “increased chances of normal to above normal rainfall”, rather than giving some sort of certainty of high levels of rainfall. In this case, even a forecast of “increased chances of above normal rainfall” was only given for northern DRC and even then in the first half of the season.

There was also the probability, from the rolling three month forecasts that Sarcof offered, that Zimbabwe and Mozambique in the generally wetter middle belt of Sadc are likely to have a more hesitant start to the season than the rest of the middle belt, although picking up as the season progresses.

This is not unexpected. One result of climate change over the last few decades has been generally later starts to seasons, even the best seasons. That in turn has seen the smarter and better farmers having everything ready before time so that when the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development gives the go order in each district, the farmers are out planting in prepared fields to get the longest possible growing season.

But those rolling three-month forecasts also suggest fairly low chances of an extreme long dry spell in the middle of the season, although the meteorologists cannot be too precise about what will happen each month, let alone give weekly forecasts. These are seasonal forecasts, even with the increase in sophistication for rolling three-month forecasts.

What we do have is that we are highly likely to have a much better season than the last one, perhaps something a bit closer to the 2022-2023 season where farmers did get reasonable dryland harvests so long as they followed expert advice and planted the right varieties of the right crops, made sure any supplementary irrigation potential was in good working order, and regardless of irrigation availability, practised conservation agriculture to ensure that as much rain that did fall was retained in the soil.

We also note that the forecasts are talking about “normal”, and that means normal for each area and each ecological zone. It does not mean bumper maize harvests in natural region four and five, but hopefully does mean the correct crops there will produce a harvest.

Over much of Zimbabwe normal, and even normal to above normal, means there are limits on just what crops can be grown. There is a belt for maize and tobacco, but it covers a minority of the country, and in more of the country farmers need to look at more drought-resistant crops such as the traditional grains.

The El Nino we suffered last season must have taught our farmers of the vital necessity of following the best advice and minimising moisture losses. The fact that there was a harvest, a modest harvest admittedly and one that has required using our reserves from past seasons and importing the commercial grain, means that there were farmers who managed, and their methods must be used by all.

The Second Republic has been pushing irrigation hard, both the construction of dams and the infrastructure needed to get that water to the farmers. Here a normal to above normal season will fill dams, and especially the more than 1 000 small seasonal dams, regardless of how continuous or intermittent the rainfall is. That is important since we need water in the dams for any irrigation.

Even a cyclone can be useful in those circumstances, filling properly built dams. As those are likely to come more often, that also means higher levels of maintenance. We do not need the sort of problem we saw at the small Holy Cross dam for example, that needed extensive repairs after being breached.

Irrigation does not, at least in summer, have to be all or nothing. A growing group of farmers have been using supplementary irrigation in summer seasons, and this allows them to use irrigation on a far larger area than for example winter wheat, where 100 percent is needed. In a good season such farmers will get almost all their water from rainfall, but even then can probably benefit from occasional additions, while in a bad season they might need up to a third of their water from irrigation.

The research into upgrading smallholder farming needs to figure out how to get more supplementary irrigation onto the smaller plots, even the Pfumvudza/Intwasa plots, where combined with the high levels of conservation agriculture now insisted upon, will move this sector into total food security. Because of the conservation techniques, this will mean not that much extra water will be useful, but some will be very useful in most seasons.

So the sort of decent season now expected should not mean a relaxation in the expansion of irrigation, rather using a better year to build up water reserves, including the underground aquifers, and expanding the infrastructure so we are continually better prepared both for bad seasons, and El Ninos will come again, and be able to cope with dry spells with greater ease. We cannot live from hand-to-mouth any longer.

 

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