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Business Reporter

As the energy transition drives surging demand for power, boosting supply will be key for copper and nickel production, researchers at Wood Mackenzie, a global research and firm, which provides data, analytics and insights on the natural resource industry, have said.

Both minerals possess properties that give them a central role in the drive for a greener future, Andrew Mitchel, research director (nickel) and Nick Pickens, research director (copper), said in a recent report. 

While demand from existing use cases would continue to grow steadily, electric vehicles (EV) and energy storage applications would underpin a huge increase in long-term demand.

Having modest copper and huge nickel deposits, the transition to cleaner energy would be a boon to Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe last produced copper about two decades ago but there now are plans to revive the mines, with potential investors having already been identified. Zimbabwe approved the Greater Chinhoyi Copper Development Programme aimed at operationalising six copper projects by 2023.

An additional three new projects will have resource definition undertaken.  The six projects include the re-treatment of the Mhangura and Alaska copper dumps while Angwa Mine in Chinhoyi and Shamrock mine in Hurungwe will be re-opened. Proposals on two other unidentified projects will be announced in due course.

“At the recent Future Facing Mined Commodities Forum, we looked at the importance of these two metals for the energy transition and how the industry will need to adapt to bridge looming supply gaps,” a study co-authored by the researchers said.

“While stainless steel will continue to be the main first use for nickel, the major engine of demand growth over the next two decades will be batteries. From only 7 percent of the total market in 2021, we expect battery use to grow to 40 percent of nickel consumption by 2040. That will push nickel demand to double in size to six million tonnes per year.

“Our estimate for nickel use in batteries has increased by 900 000 tonnes in the past six months, mainly due to greater net zero commitments from governments and automakers. 

‘‘The increasing importance of energy storage to enable wider use of renewables will also be an important factor in driving demand.”

Auto makers are shifting to electric vehicles while financial institutions are putting curbs on funding coal fired power stations in a bid to reduce carbon emissions.

According to experts, the transition needed to avoid the effects of climate change could unleash unprecedented demand for metals such as copper and nickel.

They say replacing fossils with low-carbon technologies would require an eightfold rise in renewable energy investments which results in an increase in demand for metals.

Experts say a typical electric vehicle battery pack, for instance, needs about eight kilograms of lithium, 35 kilogrammes of nickel, 20 kilogrammes of manganese and 14 kilograms of cobalt, while charging stations require substantial amounts of copper. 

For green energy power, large quantities of copper, silicon, silver and zinc are needed for solar panels while wind turbines require iron ore, copper and aluminium.

According to Wood Mackenzie, the current forecast indicates the need for an additional 1,65 million tonnes of nickel to be brought into production between 2026 and 2038.

‘‘Given that an additional 1,8 million tonnes of nickel will have been brought online between 2011 and 2023, “that ought to be feasible.”

Humans have used copper for thousands of years, the report said, both for its aesthetic qualities and for its malleability, heat transfer and antibacterial properties.

But it is the red metal’s abilities as an electrical conductor that will be the main driver of increased demand over the next 20 years and beyond, the report added.

“We expect 40 percent of future demand growth to come from electrical applications in green technologies, including EVs, offshore wind and solar,” said the report.

 Copper’s green credentials are not limited to its role in low-carbon end uses. 

The carbon intensity to produce finished copper is just a quarter that of aluminium, the report said, citing data from Metals and Mining Emissions Benchmarking Tool.

“As with nickel, given the rapid scaling of demand we expect much of the future requirement for copper will need to be met through recycling. 

‘‘There are signs of significant investment in new processing capability in North America and Europe as well as Asia.

“That gives us confidence that as much as six million tonnes of the 16 million tonnes of additional total copper demand over the next 20 years will be met by recycled feedstock.”