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Cliff Chiduku
Correspondent

In 2015, parties to the Paris Agreement met and each country pledged to outline a roadmap of how it intended mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

These contributions are meant to be determined nationally, reflecting each party’s unique circumstances, capabilities and priorities.

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are a programme of action aimed at limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels at a country level.

Fundamentally, NDCs provide a roadmap, where each country articulates its commitments to reducing emissions and transitioning to low-carbon economies.

By setting specific targets and outlining policies and measures to achieve them, NDCs serve as critical tools for driving climate action at national level.

They  encourage countries to set climate targets and revise them periodically.

The Paris Agreement mandates a five-year cycle where each party must submit updated NDCs, ideally reflecting higher levels of ambition.

The next round of NDCs (new or updated) are due next year.

This mechanism is designed to create a “ripple effect,” where each successive round of NDCs drives stronger climate actions.

One of the main strengths of NDCs is their ability to accommodate the diversity of national circumstances.

Each country sets its own targets based on its unique socio-economic conditions, needs, and capacities.

This flexibility is essential as it allows countries to tailor-make their climate actions in a manner that is realistic and achievable within their contexts. For example, while a developed country such as China may focus its efforts on reducing industrial emissions, a developing country such as Zimbabwe can prioritise afforestation or rolling out renewable energy projects.

By having a formal plan, countries can better mobilise funding for climate action.

NDCs often include specific projects and initiatives that can attract international or regional funding, technology transfer, and capacity-building support. For example, the Green Climate Fund and other international financing programmes provide crucial resources to developing countries, enabling them to implement their NDCs effectively.

Be that as it may, the effectiveness of NDCs in tackling climate change has of late been dismissed.

Agreeably, the world needs more than NDCs to achieve its global warming goals. Arguably, it is all froth and no beer.

Concern has been raised that the collective ambition of current NDCs does not sufficiently meet the overarching goal of limiting global temperature rise to pre-industrial era.

This has led to calls for increased ambition and more aggressive targets from countries, particularly those with higher historical emissions in the Global North.

Additionally, the implementation of NDCs requires financial resources, technology and capacity building, especially for developing countries that are traditionally faced with barriers in meeting their commitments.

Ensuring that NDCs are effectively implemented and translated into tangible emission reductions is another critical aspect of their effectiveness.

Critically, the non-binding nature of NDCs raise questions about their enforceability and whether countries will face consequences for failing to meet their targets.

The absence of strong enforcement mechanisms has led some critics to question their overall impact on global efforts to combat climate change.

It must be understood that the Paris Agreement is largely voluntary, and there are no binding enforcement mechanisms to ensure that countries meet their NDC targets.

This lack of enforceability can lead countries to “pledge and relax” as they do not feel compelled to achieve their commitments. As a recommendation, there is need for repercussions for failing to meet their targets.

One of the critical challenges of NDCs is the disparity in ambition and effectiveness across different countries. While some nations have set robust targets, others have submitted relatively weak commitments that fall short of what is necessary to achieve global climate goals. For example, major emitters in the Global North have substantial influence over world emissions, and their level of ambition significantly impacts overall progress.

Additionally, the implementation of NDCs varies, with some countries struggling to translate their commitments into concrete actions due to political, economic, or technical constraints.

More so, the aggregate impact of current commitments is insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals. According to various analyses, even if all current NDCs are fully implemented, the world is still on a trajectory towards a 2.7 Degrees Celsius rise in temperature by the end of the century.

This gap highlights the urgent need for parties to enhance their commitments and take more aggressive actions to curb emissions.

While NDCs represent an important framework for countries to articulate their commitments to addressing climate change, they are not fully effective.

Their effectiveness hinges on the ambition, implementation, and transparency of these contributions which is lacking.

As the international community continues to assess and enhance its climate action efforts, ongoing evaluation and enhancement of NDCs will be crucial in driving meaningful progress towards achieving the Paris Agreement goals. Food for thought!

Cliff Chiduku is a communication, public policy and governance expert with interests in climate change, agriculture and environmental issues. He writes in his personal capacity. Feedback: [email protected] or Call/App +263775716517.