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Andrew Robinson
Zimbabwe received rare praise recently when it was named in the latest Ibrahim Index of African Governance report as one of the continent’s five most improved countries since 2009. Alongside Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Niger and Senegal, Zimbabwe posted large improvements in all four of the index’s elements: safety and the rule of law; participation and human rights; sustainable economic activity; and human development.

The index is the brainchild of Sudanese telecoms billionaire Mo Ibrahim, who also runs an annual prize for African leaders who have left office.

The index takes 100 variables from more than 30 independent African and global sources for 52 countries on the continent. Sudan and South Sudan are excluded following the latter’s recent secession from the former.

As a big potential investor in Zimbabwe, we are in the final stages of inking a very large deal in the fast-moving consumer goods space and have other deals in the wings, I personally feel vindicated by the Ibrahim Foundation’s findings.

It reinforces my view that we are witnessing the start of a turnaround in that country that will, if it is not derailed by greedy politicians, business people and bureaucrats, restore it to its former glory and see it again taking pride of place in continental rankings.

In contrast, even though they still top the governance tables, historically strong performers such as Mauritius, Cape Verde, Botswana, SA and Seychelles have shown some deterioration in at least one major category over the past five years.

I am not arguing that Zimbabwe is an example of how best to run a country. Far from it. It is still ranked below the continental average on all these categories and is placed 46th out of the 52 countries that the index evaluates.

There is no doubt that it has a very bad reputation and even the most bullish investor cannot argue that this is not deserved. Over the past 20 years, the country has lurched from crisis to crisis, in the process de-industrialising to a huge degree and losing its coveted status as the continent’s breadbasket.

But to use a sporting analogy, where the ball is going to be matters far more to me than where it is now.

As an entrepreneur, I believe that getting in early means that I will be well positioned to capitalise on improvements. This means that I make decisions based on what I believe is going to happen, both good and bad, rather than what I see happening right now.

So while Zimbabwe is beset with problems and its immediate political and economic future remains somewhat shaky, to say the least, research by organisations such as the Ibrahim Foundation and what I see when I travel there, make me confident that the medium to long term will see the kinds of improvements in both governance and economic performance that will justify the large investments I am making.

More broadly, the index shows that African governance standards are generally improving. Last year, 23 countries, nearly half of the 52 nations covered, had their best governance year since 2000. Of these, 13 improved in all four categories over the past five years.

But, as always, there is also bad news. Safety and the rule of law generally (with some notable exceptions) worsened over the past five years.

Only seven countries have shown consistent year-on-year improvements every year in that period, with the other 45 nations slipping in some areas.

Ibrahim says that the latest annual findings demand an Afro-realist approach as opposed to historical Afro-pessimism or present Afro-optimism, neither of which are appropriate. He stresses what my partner investors and I have long known: there is no one-size-fits-all approach to African investing and that a granular assessment of individual countries is required.

Africa has never been a single story and it is not one now. But as an entrepreneur with all my eggs in the African basket, I am betting heavily on the fact that the progress, as evidenced by broad improvements in governance, will continue.

My money is on the young, forward-thinking agents of positive change across the continent prevailing and the days of the dinosaur rulers finally drawing to a close.

 Andrew Robinson, a South African entrepreneur and private-equity investor, is CEO of Siand.