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Sifelani Tsiko —
More rain and possible flooding is expected in most parts of the Sadc region in the coming three months, the Sadc Climate Services Centre says.

Regional forecasters say the January to March 2017 outlook is largely going to be for wet conditions with chances of localized, episodic, flash floods.

“The bulk of contiguous (sharing a common border) Sadc likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall in the next three months,” said the regional climate services centre in its latest update.

“There will be chances of localized, episodic, flash floods at times as is already happening in places. During the same period, normal to below-normal rainfall conditions will dominate mostly over eastern DRC, Tanzania, extreme northern Zambia, northern parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Seychelles.”

Sadc Climate Services Centre coordinator Bradwell Garanganga said the December 2016 to February 2017 outlook is largely still consistent with the SARCOF – 20 statement issued in Harare last year.

The recent intensification of seasonal rainfall in some parts of the Sadc region has contributed to some short – term improvements in water and pasture availability.

Sadc member States declared last year’s El-Nino-induced drought a regional disaster, paving the way for donor agencies to assist in mobilising $2,8 billion required for food aid for millions of people facing hunger.

Drought in the 2015-2016 cropping season left up to 40 million people in need of food assistance across the region, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation.

Out of this, 23 million required immediate assistance.

Zimbabwe was one of the worst affected countries by the driest year in decades facing southern Africa – including Malawi, Zambia, Lesotho, Swaziland and South Africa.

Last year, the UN’s World Food Programme said about 16 million people in southern Africa faced hunger due to poor harvests in 2015, caused by El Nino weather conditions.

The impact of the drought that swept across the Sadc region in the past two years has been felt across all sectors including agriculture, food and nutrition security, tourism, energy, health, water and sanitation and education.

A majority of small – scale farmers struggled to produce enough food to feed their families owing to the drought that ravaged most parts of Zimbabwe.

Dam levels have dropped to their worst levels in decades while pasture and water scarcity decimated 643 000 livestock with an estimated value of up to US$1,9 billion.

But good rains have brought cheer to most people across the entire region despite floods killing people and destroying crops, livestock and assets running into thousands of dollars.

Forecasters say there will be greater likelihood of normal to above normal rainfall over southern parts of Zimbabwe and Mozambique, northern South Africa, eastern Botswana and Swaziland and Lesotho.

This, they say, is largely consistent with previous projections from SARCOF-20 at a time when weak La Niña conditions are favoured to persist.

“The inter – tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is very active and centred over the eastern parts of Sadc region. This will favour mostly the eastern part of the region and Island States with rains from January 09 to 30 2017,” the Sadc Climate Services Centre said in its latest update.

“The ITCZ is going to favour more rains over the diagonal axis covering northern Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique and south Madagascar, with the centred active rain pattern over the Mozambique Channel Ocean. Suppressed rainfall conditions will predominate over DRC, Angola, Tanzania, parts of eastern Botswana, extreme north of South Africa, south Mozambique and Zimbabwe.”

Climate experts say the long-term mean for January – February- March rainfall shows maxima of above 600 millimetres over much of Malawi, Zambia, extreme southern of DRC, central and northern Mozambique as well as Mauritius and central Madagascar.

The remainder of the region receives rainfall less than 300 millimetres gradually decreasing south-westwards to southwest South Africa and Namibia where the mean rainfall is below 100 millimetres. Despite the improved rainfall outlook, humanitarian agencies say millions still face hunger in Southern Africa as the hunger crisis enters its peak. They say millions still need food assistance to avert starvation.

“We have warned for months that this food crisis deteriorates by the day. We are now approaching the peak of hunger, but international funding still doesn’t match the enormous needs,” said Michelle Carter, CARE’s deputy regional director for Southern Africa recently. – Zimpapers Syndication.