Radar replacement can revolutionise disaster response

jgogoJeffry Gogo  Climate Story
THE Meteorological Services Department has revealed it needs at least US$12 million purchase and replace four essential weather radars that can revolutionise the manner that Zimbabwe responds to climate change-related catastrophes.The four weather surveillance radars, situated in Harare, Bulawayo, the Victoria Falls and Buffalo Range in Chiredzi, stopped working 10 years ago after outliving their 30-year lifespans each and due to spares shortage.

However, when operational, those radars are able to provide precise, area-specific forecasts of severe weather and climate occurrences.
Extreme events such as tropical storms or hail can be accurately detected a day, even hours, before they occur or as they build up, according to the MSD’s senior meteorologist for climate change, Mr Elisha Moyo.

Although the Tokwe-Mukosi disaster seems more of a hydrological issue occasioned by the engineers’ poor anticipation, the radars may have been able to predict with pin-point accuracy the potential of heavy rains or flooding in that specific area, or in other hotspots like Muzarabani or Tsholotsho.

As climate change impacts escalate, that kind of accuracy can significantly help inform national decisions on moving people away from danger’s path early, minimising deaths, damage, loss, and desperation as already seen in many situations in Zimbabwe so far this year.

Mr Moyo said in an interview in Harare last week that it would cost up to $3 million to replace each radar. If the option of replacement was not followed, costs of repairs and maintenance of the old ones can be as much, but efficiency will be hamstrung.

Repairs have failed for the past 10 years owing to a shortage of spares for the French-manufactured weather surveillance equipment, as economic sanctions by the West took their toll.

“The weather radar has the ability to provide the precise location of a storm; its actual speed, its strength, its direction, its height and its characteristics. That enables us to predict accurately the time it will take, say a storm in Marondera moving at a particular speed,  to reach Harare,” explained Mr Moyo.

“And you can actually see the speed of the winds within the storm. So, in terms of severity, we are able to detect violent storms better. At times we say there is a storm but we do not know how severe it is.

“With the weather radar, we are able to observe the storm with all its characteristics. The radar is very effective for monitoring and early warning (events building up at that specific time).”

Radar is short for Radio Detecting and Ranging,  an object-detection system that uses radio waves to determine the range, altitude, direction, or speed of objects, according to the know-it-all online dictionary, Wikipedia.

However, the weather radar is weak on lead times, Moyo said. That is, it unable to provide data for precise predictions say a week or more ahead of the actual storm, flooding or heavy rain.

But warnings of severe storms 24 hours in advance is still time enough to mobilise resources, raise alarm and move people to safety.
That has been difficult to achieve with the Meteorological Department’s current weather and climate forecasting equipment, which tends to produce generalised and rather vague information..

The Department has come under heavy fire from the public and other weather data consumers for such predictions that make planning difficult.

It is not uncommon for the MSD to provide general forecasts for the entire Masvingo Province, for instance, yet the region consists of several districts, with different climate conditions and different farmers requiring distinct information to inform necessary agriculture decisions.

Weak Capacity

The Meteorological Services Department is severely incapacitated to effectively and efficiently perform its functions. Yet, the data and information it produces remains indispensable to policy and strategy formulation in face of dangerous climate change.

Salaries are generally poor, sources say, leading to a high turnover of experienced and qualified staff. The MSD director Dr Amos Makarau said in a previous interview with this writer that Zimbabwe’s meteorology was “facing several challenges, which include aged equipment and shortage of personnel.”

In the 2014 National Budget, under $5 million was allocated toward meteorology. By comparison, the former chief executive of the Public Service Medical Aid Society, Dr Cuthbert Dube, took home $6 million annually in salary and benefits, according to a schedule of incomes for parastatal and state enterprises released by Government last week. That’s an individual earning more than a Government unit’s entire budget for a whole year!

Some equipment at the MSD is now more than a 100 years old and no longer reliable.

The earliest weather stations in Zimbabwe were set up at Harare and Bulawayo very early in the 20th century.

The UK, a country almost half the size of Zimbabwe, has 15 weather radars dotted around the small island nation. The four radars here catered for the entire country, although accuracy for areas outside the key radius of 200 to 400 kilometres receded.

Linia Mashawi, MSD’s principal meteorologist, told a youth conference on climate change in Harare last Wednesday that the Department played a crucial  role in early warning and minimising climate risks.

“The challenge for agriculture and other weather sensitive sectors is to adapt to the harsh reality of a changing climate. That is what the MSD is trying to address through climate change adaptation projects through partnerships,” she said in reference to partnerships for strengthening weather and climate services with institutions like Econet, Practical Action and others.

In line with the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), the MSD was working with insurance companies in the provision of weather index insurance that seeks to assist farmers to hedge against the vagaries of weather and climate.

The GFCS urges world meteorological units to improve information for the development of natural resources and protection of lives and livelihoods and property.

That information must be user-defined and be climate relevant at global, regional, national and local levels and provided in a timely and understandable manner.

The MSD external relations manager, Mr Elliot Bungare said at the youth conference that the department had engaged the Great Zimbabwe University to come up with a list of new names to help simplify meteorology terms.

Concerns have been raised on the use of jargon when delivering weather and climate information to illiterate grandmothers and grandfathers in rural areas, which effectively killed the communication process.

The Department had begun to decentralise its operations by opening offices in each province countrywide, as part of measures to improve the provision of weather and climate information to those who need it most, faster.

Automatic and manual weather stations are being installed in disaster-prone and remote areas of the country in the quest for modernisation and densification of observatory stations.

A partnership with Oxfam, a not-for-profit international organisation, had seen the installation of 15 manual weather stations in Zvishavane, Gutu and Chirumhanzu.

The Met Department provides “weather advisories and warnings of impending hazards like tropical cyclones, droughts, prolonged heavy rains, strong winds and prolonged dry spells that are likely to endanger life and property”.

Such information is used in policy formulation and implementation of strategies in climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, disaster management and water resources management. The bottom line, the MSD needs immense financial assistance to improve its operations.

God is faithful.

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