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Lagos – Nigeria is to become the 25th largest economy in the world by 2028, second only to Egypt in Africa. This will firmly consolidate the country’s place as the largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa, the 2013 Centre for Economic and Business Research’s  World Economic League Table has revealed.

The country’s gross domestic product is estimated to hit US$927 billion, US$655 billion higher than the current estimate of US$272 billion. And with the on-the-pipeline rebasing plans by the National Bureau of Statistics, the figure is expected to reach US$405 billion in January 2014, overtaking South Africa, which is currently the largest African economy, with an estimated GDP of US$370 billion.

Incidentally, South Africa does not have any place in this table that contains 30 prospective  economic powerhouses by 2028. On the other hand, Nigeria, currently 36th on the table, is not only expected to rank 25th on this chart, but is also tipped to clearly topple South Africa, currently 33rd, by 2020.

“Nigeria is predicted to overtake South Africa as Sub Saharan Africa’s largest economy in 2020 and to rise from 36th position in the league table in 2013 to 25th in 2028,’’ said the report, released last Friday.

The chart shows Nigeria being ranked among economic hubs of the world, such as the United States, China, Japan and Germany, among others.  This feat is attributed to the growing Nigerian population, which provides a large consumer and market base.

The World Bank estimates the current country’s population at 168,8 million, with an annual growth rate of 2,8 percent.   The  CEBR ‘s report sees this as an economic booster but fears socio-political tensions may have a telling effect on the country’s economy.

‘’Favourable demographics are the main driving force. The main risk is political instability and violence which will deter investment,’’ the report further said.

This report further reveals that China will overtake the US as the largest economy in the world. India and Japan will become third and fourth powerhouses, while Brazil, formerly mocked as economy of the future, will be fifth. On the other hand, Egypt will become 22nd with an estimated GDP of US$1 069 trillion, making it the largest economy in Africa.

It is also revealed that Nigeria will overtake Sweden, which is 26th on the chart; Argentina, which is 29th, as well as the Netherlands, which is the last in the ladder, with an estimated GDP of US$888 billion. The report says several variables informed its position.

“Significant developments which have affected predictions this year include  the emerging market currency sell-off in mid-2013, the revised views about the future of commodity prices, as well as substantially revised views about the future of energy prices,’’ the report said.

A country by country outlook shows that  even though the US will relinquish its position to China, it will still remain the world’s most successful economy, owing to cheap energy and innovation. On the other hand, Abenomics policy of printing money  is likely to be successful in Japan but a weaker Yen will bring the country’s position down in money GDP terms.

Weak European economic growth, depreciating currency, requirement to bail out ailing economies in the rest of the Eurozone, as well as increasingly adverse population trends will bring Germany’s position down.

South Africa, currently 33rd will fall further, owing to declining industrial confidence and weakening prices for commodities.
‘’The position is forecast to continue to deteriorate to 38 percent place by 2028, by which time the Nigerian economy is likely to be about a third larger and by then, by far the largest sub-Saharan African economy,’’ said the report. – Business Day.