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Tichaona Zindoga Political Editor
LESS than a fortnight ago, I intimated to a diplomat friend that despite apparent differences among opposition outfits and individuals especially in relation to Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC-T and Joice Mujuru’s Zimbabwe People First, chances of unity were actually higher than largely touted. According to this analysis, the idea to dismiss prospects of a coalition was something between self-serving naivety and outright failure at mapping scenarios for Zimbabwe’s political landscape for the next 18 months and under.

Zimbabwe is due to hold elections in 2018 and the notion of an opposition coalition has been one of the most tantalising talking points and prospects.

Whereas it has been easy to dismiss a possible coalition between Mujuru and Tsvangirai on the grounds of popular opposition on both sides, the fact of the matter is that the two leaders themselves are willing to work together (as ever) and it is only a matter of time before such a “big” announcement is made.

The fears about power struggles as to who takes the leading role, which has long been taken as the main stumbling block, is slowly being resolved.

In fact, we are in a phase where in the coming few weeks and months, it does not become a question at all.

Lately, there have been two major indications of this.

The first one was the loss that Joice Mujuru suffered in the Bikita West by-election where People First entered its first major contest.

It fared badly.

The People First candidate lost by a margin of about 11 000 to the ruling party’s Beauty Chibaya.

The result was sobering in many respects: it exposed Mujuru and her party for their weaknesses as the much-anticipated next big political thing.

They were just ordinary numbers in the opposition.

Mujuru did not possess any magic powers, and her pedigree as a leader in the mould of former vice president of the Republic and a much vaunted liberation war veteran were cast in serious doubt.

The fallout within the party from that loss has been evident.

Much worse, such a defeat is likely to replicate itself. It does not take a genius to see that Joice Mujuru is not a genius, either.

She, and many others, know her limitations and the shallowness of her stock despite pretensions.

Hence, she can only depend on someone – much as her career as we know it has otherwise rested on the shoulders of men, principally her late husband, Solomon, and President Mugabe her former benefactor and political father figure.

Her reliance on the other breed of men – the likes of Rugare Gumbo, Didymus Mutasa, Dzikamai Mavhaire, et al has come unstuck.

This explains February 8, 2017 when she fired the above-named gentlemen and other “heavyweights” from People First – a clear marker of a new paradigm.

Not only is Mujuru seeking new paternalism.

She is also willing to go into a new partnership without baggage from her past.

These “Elders” of People First have just outlived their usefulness to Mujuru because for all having played midwife to her opposition career, they present close to zero inspiration into the future.

In fact, they are an albatross and carry heavy historical and political liabilities and were seen unlikely to embrace or be embraced in the new politics.

Here is the catch.

Mujuru is willing to be a junior partner to Tsvangirai and has been preparing her bed for him.

The results of Bikita West and similar grim prospects mean that she can no longer legitimately challenge Tsvangirai for the possible top job in a consociational arrangement.

She is has to be Number Two.

That is the best she, that is dependent on men, can only achieve.

She knows it.

But are we likely to see the coalition tomorrow or next week?

No!

And this is part of my thesis to the friend. The Tsvangirai camp will not let her come, even willingly, with too much bargaining power.

The fact that the party was unwilling to assist in Bikita West so as to expose Mujuru is part of this strategy.

She should not have too much bargaining power hence she should be broken down.

The next by-election, if she participates and loses again, will be part of this incremental bargaining.

A good guess is that she is unlikely to participate. Her excuse will be that the electoral field is not conducive, etc, a convenient scapegoat to stay away from contests that will further expose her.

She will be allowed to get away with it but with everyone knowing the truth. It has to be recalled that the loss in Bikita West saw the party bickering on whether it should have participated in that losing cause.

One Claudious Makova, who insisted on People First participating, paid dearly for it and he immediately fell on his sword, which the latest purge only but confirmed.

Mujuru will be looking for redeeming features of her party and hope to sell to the next suitor. Sadly, her stock will be limited.

Two things will happen.

First, she will hold a congress that will see her being ordained the queen of the party and get the much needed constitutional legitimacy both as a party entity and as a leader herself “chosen by the people”.

She will fill leadership positionswith her cronies, a project that was likely to be scuttled by the likes of Gumbo and Mutasa who for all the implicit sidelining through the designation as Elders would present a lot of problems.

A leadership that emerges from this process is likely to be young and quite progressive, giving an outlook that lays a generational stake and mandate.

Let’s give that a minimum of three months to take place. After that the party emerges as a good prospect, peopled with young people, including possibly some prominent names.

The second thing to happen with Mujuru now having legitimacy and a recognisable entity and constituency, will be moves to finally engage with the MDC-T for a coalition.

Mujuru’s position as a junior partner will be very secure. This will be largely for her personal-political benefit.

Once again her name will be crucial on the campaign trail that commences in earnest somewhere between September and November 2017, culminating in a pre-electoral pact that will see a Tsvangirai running for president in next year’s elections with Mujuru as his prospective deputy.

(Yes, Mujuru is likely to be a major feature at the 18th anniversary of the MDC-T).

Thus, the road is clear for a coalition – although it will not come too soon or without glitches.

Mujuru’s romance with Tsvangirai will likely break a couple hearts on his side.

* PostScript: Poor Rugare Gumbo and Didymus Mutasa. Someone divined that they would be putschists to old age. How true now they have been booted out for rebelliousness – they accuse JTR of dictatorship – the very thing they accused President Mugabe at Zanu-PF of. The more things change, the more they remain the same!