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This commentary, or at least part of it, is coming one week late.

But never TWO late!

Last week, we had a most interesting fete of news, from Cape to Nairobi, through Harare, which warrants our attention for these are events whose consequences are going to be with us for a long time to come and shape local discourse and processes.

The failed vote of no confidence in President Zuma of South Africa; the sputtering MDC-Alliance in Zimbabwe and Kenya’s election that yielded yet another defeat for the opposition there.

The Siamese Twin
Don’t ask us why we are interested in Kenya, an East African country with which we enjoy the barest ties. Of course, we are tied to Kenya. Our main opposition leader here, Morgan Tsvangirai, happens to be a Siamese twin of the leader of the opposition in Kenya, a guy called Raila Odinga, who leads an outfit called National Super Alliance (Nasa).

He led them to a defeat to incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta in recent elections in what was probably his fourth and last attempt at leading the country. He was defeated by 54.3 percent to 44.7 percent.

Odinga contests the outcome, something that we have become accustomed to, not least because he primed us to expect the outcome as it became apparent that he was going to lose. He claimed vote rigging and manipulation.

When the results came he ratcheted up his excuses.

There has been some violence in the post-election period, claiming the lives of two dozen or so people. Here is a man who does not hold any scruples: in 2007 he led a bloodbath that claimed close to 2 000 people in post-election violence. He has been holding up this spectre to get what he wants.

Apparently it has not worked this time, despite his calls for strike action. We understand that in Kenya elections are a bloody emotional affair where rationality and patriotism come secondary to narrow tribal considerations.

Odinga is refusing to go without a fight. Last time we checked he had approached the courts for redress.
Well, good luck to him!

But his fate appears sealed by the fact that Western countries have endorsed the election result with both the US and European Union backing the outcome.

Former US Secretary of State John Kerry said Kenya’s system appeared credible. He then urged the indefatigable Odinga to accept defeat.

“I know how it feels to lose,” he was quoted as saying.
“But you have to move on,” he said.

Ouch!

Farewell that should have been

A couple of days ago we stumbled on a contrived speech that was purported to have been Odinga’s exit speech, retiring from national politics.
Boy, it was so real that for a moment we were fooled!

But it would do well for Odinga — and we were hoping that Morgan Tsvangirai would also take note — for Raila to adopt it as his own, lacking as he is in grace and statesmanship. Here are some excerpts of the speech that was never, for all its entertainment and academic value:

“Fellow Kenyans, my colleagues in the struggle, my worthy opponents, ladies and gentlemen

“For more than three decades, I have dedicated my life to fighting for a free, just, and democratic Kenya. For my efforts, I was ridiculed, trailed by the security forces, intimidated, harassed, tortured and detained without trial. My family suffered lack, isolation and ridicule. I could not even attend my own mother’s funeral. My health suffered because of being locked in darkened and cold cells without basic amenities.

“I thank God for keeping me alive. Some of my compatriots did not live to tell the story.

“In the course of this journey, I learnt to become a better human being, my resolve to fight for justice and equity only became stronger and my vision became clearer. Kenya has become a lot better not just because of me, but also because of the great men and women who suffered alongside me and the many Kenyan people who have stood by us to date. I thank you all . . . 2017 marked the fourth time I was running for President . . . Ladies and gentlemen, every time I ran for office, I did not do it to acquire power and wealth for myself or just to prove a point. I had an agenda for Kenya. I wanted to transform this country to be one of the greatest in this part of the world. I did it for the Kenyan people. You have and will always be my priority. I am devastated that during the past few days, police have used brutal force to put down innocent citizens who came out in the streets to express their displeasure, a right guaranteed in the constitution. I say pole to all who have lost loved ones and those who have suffered injuries. I urge the police to exercise utmost restraint because one day they will be individually held accountable. At the same time, I urge all my supporters and others aggrieved with the outcome to keep the peace, return to work and improve their own lives and those of their communities.

‘‘Fellow Kenyans, my colleagues and supporters, I have played my part on the political stage. I have made my contribution. I am particularly excited about devolution and a new constitutional dispensation. And as the Wise Man once said, there is a time for everything. After consulting with my family, my colleagues and Kenyans from across the divide I have made the difficult decision to exit the political stage.” Brilliant!

We are not sure as to the source and authorship of this speech but we can bet that it would have done Odinga, and Kenya a lot of good. And Africa, too.

We are tired of bitter losers such as Odinga and their never ending excuses. Africa can barely afford the destructively taxing civil strife arising from the bitterness of sore losers. It becomes worse when we know for certain that some opposition leaders have outlived their usefulness and hang in there for egocentric reasons and that, well, their masters have not yet found other useful puppets.

No supper alliance
Then we come back home. To our Morgan Tsvangirai.

The man has been drawing a lot of inspiration from Odinga even when it has yielded nothing.

We have illustrated that in these pages before. The Zimbabwe opposition has been conspicuous by its silence regarding the elections in Kenya and its results. There is generally though an overwhelming disquiet. Like a pall has been cast over the opposition: Tsvangirai and Odinga are Siamese twins, remember and what happened in Kenya could, and is likely to happen in Zimbabwe.
Such is the conjoined Fate!

It becomes worse and ominous: Kenya has just shown us that the idea of coalition does not necessarily translate into opposition victory.

Kenya’s Nasa was formed in January 2017 incorporating Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Wiper Democratic Movement (Wiper), Forum for the Restoration of Democracy — Kenya (FORD-Kenya), Amani National Congress (ANC) National Rainbow Coalition, Progressive Party of Kenya, CCU, Muungano and other parties.

Raila Odinga, Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka, Moses Wetangula and Isaac Ruto are the co-principals of the coalition.

A boisterous Odinga, sensing victory, then boasted: “They said opposition unity was a mirage but today we are here to fulfil the promise that we made to Kenyans we will come together and form one huge political coalition.”

A fortnight ago, Tsvangirai and others formed what they have dubbed the MDC-Alliance, a low key affair that has failed to generate any significant waves on the scene.

It was supposed to be the grand coalition. It turned out to be notably a reunion of former colleagues from the old MDC that has split into, many factions and splinters over the years. Like a high school reunion.

Morgan Tsvangirai. Welshman Ncube. Tendai Biti.

The reader may have seen this hilarious graphic in which the three men are depicted wearing school uniforms: Welsh on the left, Tsvangirai pondering holding a book and a sagacious Tendai.

High school reunion.
That is what it smells like.
This is not anywhere close to Odinga’s “Super Alliance”.

But there is an even worrying sign: not everyone is happy with the coalition and that is how we ended up with madame Thokhozani Khupe being bashed for dissenting. And it is a big deal — such a big deal because we have a potential split on our hands. Yet another split when Morgan Tsvangirai should be building something between a grand coalition and a super alliance.

And we have come to know that on that day at the Zimbabwe Grounds, no deal was signed, after all, to make this MDC Little Alliance. Biti says nothing is concrete yet. Even Zanu ‘Ndoga’, sorry Ndonga says it has not officially sanctioned an alliance with Tsvangirai. On the other hand Makoni and Dabengwa were not present and have not shown too much keenness in the project. Another interesting development is that Joice Mujuru held her own convention, finally, to strengthen her hand which she is likely to use in asserting her claim to leadership of an opposition coalition, probably minus Tsvangirai.

Tsvangirai was present at Mujuru’s convention, symbolically. It’s going to be super interesting.

Smiling survivor
Then there was the issue of the opposition in South Africa forcing a no confidence vote against President Jacob Zuma — and losing.

President Jacob Zuma is the ultimate survivor. He is the proverbial cat with nine lives — and he survived the eighth attempt at his life in Parliament and he is set to see through all his nine lives. Nine is eternal, for those that have an interest in numerology.

To all credible measure, the ANC leader is likely to last his term in 2019, perhaps going down in South Africa’s short democratic history as a man who was hounded throughout but survived due to sheer skill of a cunning intelligence operator.

It is obvious that his adversaries underestimate his native intelligence and he is able to outmanoeuvre and leave them with egg on their faces. But that is to miss the fundamental point: President Zuma is the leader of a popular grassroots and revolutionary party ANC. He is there because of the mandate of the people.

At the last elections the ANC polled over 60 percent of the vote.

The opposition and the white racist media would like us to believe that ANC is a minority party — no, it is not! It is a well-known fact that apart from the media the anti-ANC opposition also manipulates markets and the economy to coerce the government into and out of certain political behaviour and decisions.

President Zuma is just the fall guy. The real attack is on the revolution which threatens the status quo and wealth dynamics. August 8 was an attack on the ANC and the revolution.

The revolution won against old racist forces that feel threatened an ANC that is seeking to push a radical agenda for the benefit of blacks. And the Boers came running . . .

It would be remiss if we abstained from noting how the same white elements that are haunting President Zuma in South Africa fought a losing battle in Zimbabwe as the country pursued radical changes in wealth, property and economic patterns. In Zimbabwe, whites were defeated by the gun and got little succour from the negotiating table at Lancaster House. The entrenched positions progressively lost way and by the land reform programme, white monopolists lost to the majority.

They fled.

They went all over the world, including in South Africa where they have not only been fighting to protect the last vestiges of colonial and apartheid legacy but also launch a comeback on Zimbabwe.

It is a desperate call and we have seen white groups trying to use the courts and other measures to seek revenge on Zimbabwe, reverse losses such as the land reform programme or seek regime change and the removal of President Mugabe.

It was to be expected.

Thank goodness, it has thrown a whole new perspective in the little matter!