All the best to Minister Chinamasa

FINANCE_MINISTER_PATRICK_CHINAMASA_BUD_PThe magnitude of challenges which confront Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa today as he presents the 2015 National Budget cannot be overestimated.

The nation is looking for redemption from the minister. A myriad of challenges have to be addressed, competing interests balanced, loopholes sealed and the tone for economic recovery set.

The economy has been as hot as the prevailing weather in most respects and many are hopeful to the point of desperation that Minister Chinamasa will deliver them from the current quagmire.

It has been quite challenging throughout the year and both corporate and individuals have the anticipated Budget to cling on for dear life. That in itself makes Minister Chinamasa’s brief a really tricky one. But nonetheless he has to live up to expectations.

Most, if not all, constituencies are looking up to the minister’s briefcase to dish out a palatable menu that will satisfy the tastes of the majority. He obviously does not have much in terms of fiscal space. Revenue has not been performing to expectations. But these are excuses he can only share with colleagues and compatriots but when he takes to the grand stand he is expected to deliver.

Wide consultations have been held in preparing the Budget and we would want to believe that it’s not just a mere ritual but that the minister and his team have taken on board proposals, advice and suggestions. Of course, they would have to sieve out those that may not be in sync with what the minister is trying to achieve.

Last week Minister Chinamasa, together with his counterpart in Industry and Commerce Minister Mike Bimha and the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor Dr John Mangudya, gave a good account of themselves when they addressed the Herald Business trade and investment seminar in Johannesburg. They spoke glowingly about prospects in this country and they also did not hide the challenges confronting the economy but promised to deal with them expeditiously to create a better environment for business to flourish.

This should come out clear this afternoon. A budget, by any name, is ordinarily a challenging experience, be it at domestic, corporate, district, regional or local authority level. Moreso at national level.

The budgeting process entails the allocation of finite resources and the minister is obviously walking a tight rope. Resources at hand are grossly strained given a subdued, if not depressed economic performance.

The tax base has been narrowing progressively and yet demands for funding have been growing exponentially. This leaves the minister between a rock and a hard place.

Ordinarily he would have to increase taxes to increase cash flows into Treasury but then again this is not an option given the fact that Zimbabweans, both corporate and individuals, are already highly taxed.

External lines of credit have not been as forthcoming as envisaged but there seems to be light at the end of the tunnel as some bilateral and multilateral lenders begin to loosen their purses.

However, one major source of capital is foreign direct investment. And here Zimbabwe has not fared too well although prospects are high that the landscape will change significantly in the short term given the Chinese and Russian deals and growing interest from such countries as Britain.

But in his Budget Statement Minister Chinamasa needs to table a package that will entice investors to this promising country. In South Africa he promised potential investors that Government would address all outstanding issues such as policy inconsistency, uncertainty and ambiguity over indigenisation, among other concerns.

“Please we are open to any ideas which produce wealth and contribute to our economic growth. We want to do things differently. People still think about us in the past; that we are still mired in the trenches . . . We are out of the trenches,” he said.

Dr Mangudya also weighed in, saying Zimbabwe was an excellent investment destination. He listed such attributes as good climate, open economy, huge resources and good human capital as ones that would guarantee a good return on investment.

This afternoon’s presentation, therefore, presents Minister Chinamasa with the grand stage on which he can demonstrate to investors that he meant his word when he said Government was ready to do all it took to make the environment more user-friendly.

In the National Budget, Minister Chinamasa needs to put an accent on local production. As I have said before, no economy can prosper without high levels of domestic production. We cannot just consume without producing because this has far-reaching consequences.

The economy has relied heavily on imports thus exporting jobs at a time firms are retrenching like it’s going out of fashion. This scenario has also not helped matters in terms of easing the liquidity crunch that has been with us for too long.

Sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, mining and tourism need to up their game. We have gone some way into the summer cropping season but uptake of inputs is not looking too good. Minister Chinamasa needs to salvage the situation.

Mining has been lining up to take over agriculture as the major economic pillar but this has not happened as yet, at least going by developments in the capital-intensive sector. There remains so much potential in every sector of the economy but its about time strategies were put in place to turn the prospects into reality.

Minister Chinamasa will obviously be informed by the Zimbabwe Agenda for Sustainable Socio-Economic Transformation in his presentation.

2015 will mark the second year of implementation and we hope the economy is not too far off the mark in terms of targets. Whatever the case, the National Budget Statement should consolidate Zim-Asset’s implementation matrix and ensure the economy inches towards the anticipated growth rate of 7,1 percent.

Of course, National Budget announcement is an event that marks the beginning of an implementation process.

And when it comes to this part, all stakeholders need to be reading from the same page.

Every Zimbabwean will need to play their part to ensure the economy returns to sustainable recovery. It is everyone responsibility to help grow the economy in a prosper-thy-neighbour framework.

All the best to Minister Chinamasa. We hope there will be more smiles than frowns after the presentation of the National Budget Statement to Parliament this afternoon!

Dr Mangudya, the nation will be waiting for your Monetary Policy Statement to complement fiscal efforts.

‘If you believe and I believe and we together pray. The Holy Spirit will come down and Zimbabwe will be saved,” goes a song that I find very instructive in terms of taking our economy to a sustainable growth path.

In God I Trust!

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